Zero Emissions Day in the Arctic: A 24-Hour Stress Test for the Planet

This is an op-ed written by an external contributor. All views expressed are the author’s own.

A Region Warming at Breakneck Speed

The Arctic is warming at nearly four times the global average, as confirmed by peer-reviewed studies covering the satellite era since 1979. In September 2024, sea ice extent fell to 4.28 million square kilometres, the seventh lowest on record. In March 2025, the winter maximum reached only 14.33 million square kilometres, the lowest ever observed, highlighting the region’s ongoing decline. 

This continued loss of ice is reshaping trade patterns, with the number of unique vessels operating in the Arctic Polar Code area rising from about 1,298 in 2013 to 1,781 in 2024. During the same period, the total distance sailed more than doubled from 6.1 million to roughly 12.7 million nautical miles.

Permafrost remains another major concern. Scientific assessments estimate that Arctic soils contain around 1,400–1,600 gigatonnes of organic carbon. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change reports that thawing permafrost could release roughly 150 to 250 gigatonnes of CO₂-equivalent by 2100 in upper-end warming cases. 

Longer-term modeling studies suggest that emissions could continue beyond 2100, with abrupt thaw processes adding an extra 60–100 gigatonnes of carbon (equivalent to about 220–370 gigatonnes of CO₂) by 2300, increasing total releases by as much as 125–190 percent compared to gradual thaw alone. These figures make clear that what happens in the Arctic is central to the global climate balance and that action in the region can have worldwide benefits.