As World Nears Peak Fossil Fuels, Emissions Set to Fall, Analysts Say
As World Nears Peak Fossil Fuels, Emissions Set to Fall, Analysts Say - Yale E360
The shuttered San Juan coal plant near Waterflow, New Mexico. Steven Baltakatei Sandoval via Wikipedia
As the world rapidly nears peak fossil fuels, energy emissions are headed for decline, according to multiple independent analyses.
A new forecast from the historically conservative International Energy Agency indicates that demand for each fossil fuel — coal, oil, and natural gas — is set to peak this decade. “These remarkable shifts will bring forward the peak in global greenhouse gas emissions,” IEA chief Fatih Birol wrote in a recent op-ed for the Financial Times.
The power sector is already on the cusp of peak emissions, as wind and solar gain ground on coal and natural gas, according to a recent report from energy think tank Ember. In the first half of this year, wind and solar power grew 12 percent, while fossil power grew just 0.1 percent. Power sector emissions have plateaued and could begin to fall before the end of 2023.
Emissions from oil-reliant cars, trucks, planes, and ships will take slightly longer to crest. A new analysis from consulting firm DNV finds that oil emissions are set to peak in 2025. Total energy emissions, across all fuels, are likely to peak in 2024, the analysis found.
Despite the rosy outlook for clean energy, analysts warn that emissions are still not falling fast enough to keep warming to 1.5 degrees C, the aim of the Paris Agreement. Hitting the 1.5-degree goal, Birol wrote, “will require significantly stronger and faster policy action by governments.”
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Related Knowledge Center: Climate economics
Climate change is now a driver of the world’s economy. The impact is profound:
- Catastrophic weather events — hurricanes, floods, droughts, high temperatures — are more frequent and more extreme. The cost can be measured in both the initial damage caused and the longer-term impact on the economy.
- Vulnerable communities are increasing climate-related investments, hardening infrastructure and taking other protective measures.
- Investment in carbon capture and storage technologies is increasingly rapidly.
- Governments are making investments and crafting regulations to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
On top of all of this is the cost of uncertainty. As the Fourth National Climate Assessment, released in 2018 by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, says, “The assumption that current and future climate conditions will resemble the recent past is no longer valid.”