World better equipped than ever to tackle devastating climate change. - Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

World better equipped than ever to tackle devastating climate change.

New technologies, policies and global commitments give reason for optimism this Earth Day

- Gregory Nemet is a Professor at the University of Wisconsin–Madison’s La Follette School of Public Affairs.
- Despite a deeply concerning report on climate change, he says there is room for optimism.
- Nemet argues we are far better equipped than ever to tackle climate change, and notes we are still in the early stages of the climate action revolution.

On this Earth Day, it might be tempting to dwell on the doom-and-gloom headlines related to last month’s report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

I wouldn’t blame you. According to the landmark report, global average temperatures are likely to increase 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels within the next decade. This would put us over one of the critical thresholds established under the 2015 Paris climate agreement that would bring about intensifying rainfall and floods, an onslaught of unprecedented heat waves and relentless wildfires, just to name a few of the many consequences of climate change.

I’m not here to tell you that we shouldn’t be concerned. We should be. However, lost in so many of the stories that were generated by the IPCC report is the fact that we are far better equipped than ever to tackle climate change. I touched on this in the Ideas Lab a year and a half ago. Even in the short time since I discussed the rapid improvement in climate technologies, our ability to innovate, collaborate and scale technology has only gotten better. If there were ever a time to have optimism about our collective capacity and will to address climate change, this is it. This idea was threaded through the IPCC report, which emphasized that we can still effect transformational change that could stave off the worst possible outcomes and lead to a sustainable, equitable world.

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Globally, we’ve made considerable progress in a broad range of technologies that are making the transition to a low-carbon economy more affordable and feasible than ever. For example, wind power costs have fallen by more than 50 percent in the past 10 years, solar costs have fallen by more than 90 percent, and battery costs have decreased by even more.

Meanwhile, “green” jobs have skyrocketed by 75 percent globally in the last decade. Nearly 13 million people across the world are now working in jobs dedicated to renewable energy. By 2030, that number could be 38 million.

At the same time, major policy interventions in the U.S. like the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, and most crucially, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 have provided a more comprehensive, inclusive, and dynamic approach to stimulating innovation and accelerating adoption of low-carbon technologies. The Inflation Reduction Act is now the bedrock of U.S. climate policy. On its own it is expected to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 15 percent over the next ten years compared to a scenario in which it didn’t exist.

An important aspect of the Inflation Reduction Act is that it consists of an innovative policy mix that includes adjustments to the tax code that incentivize the development of a wide range of climate mitigation measures, including the core technologies like solar, wind power, and electric vehicles. The costs that have already plummeted substantially in the last few years will likely drop even lower. It may turn out to have a larger impact than expected as well, thanks to the self-reinforcing cycle of technology innovation.

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Given what we have observed with the positive-feedback loop of technology adoption that lowers prices and then accelerates scalability, we would expect a larger impact than originally projected. The bill’s effects will also be larger than expected due to the U.S.’ outsized influence in the global economy. Even if the tax credits do not extend to foreign companies, the lower prices of climate technologies will. In an additional downstream effect, the landmark policy will also serve as a roadmap for other countries as they look to reduce emissions through policies of their own.

Admittedly, it will be difficult to reach the goals of net zero emissions by 2050 in the U.S. and Europe, 2060 in China, and 2070 in India. It will be even more difficult to accelerate these goals like the IPCC report suggests is necessary.

However, we’re better positioned than ever to think ambitiously. In last year’s report, the IPCC reported that 18 countries, including the U.S., have reduced emissions over the last decade. While global emissions continue to grow, that growth has slowed and continued technology improvement has the potential to reverse emissions in other countries as well. There is even momentum to proactively reduce emissions through emerging carbon dioxide removal technologies.

The U.S. now has over 3 million jobs in the clean energy sector, many of which barely existed just a decade ago. And in the six short months since the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act, clean energy companies in the U.S. have announced the creation of more than 100,000 new jobs and nearly $90 billion in new investments into clean energy projects. Other countries are likely to follow suit in such aggressive actions.

In addition to the rapid advancement of climate technology and a booming clean energy jobs sector, countries are also collaborating in unprecedented ways. After 35 years of the IPCC and countless other partnerships and agreements, countries are on the same page as never before.

Later this year, the next U.N. climate negotiations will be held in the United Arab Emirates. At Cop28, the U.N. will unveil its first-ever “ global stocktake.” This will help countries identify where they’ve made progress and what they need to do to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Other items on the agenda at Cop28 will include commitments to phasing out fossil fuels and operationalizing last year’s agreement that rich nations will reimburse developing nations for losses and damages resulting from climate change.

These are conversations that would have been unthinkable among nations just a few years ago. You might view it as a sign of just how urgent the situation has become.

That’s true, but I also view it as a sign of how much progress we’ve made. And to think, we’re still just in the early stages of the climate action revolution.

Gregory Nemet is a Professor at the University of Wisconsin–Madison’s La Follette School of Public Affairs.