The World Bank Cuts China's Growth Forecast For 2024 - OilPrice.com
The World Bank Cuts China’s Growth Forecast For 2024 | OilPrice.com
The World Bank has cut its economic growth forecast for China for 2024, citing continued difficulties in the domestic market including the property crisis and a fading rebound from the re-opening this year.
Slower Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) growth could hit commodity demand and prices since China is the world’s largest commodity consumer and the biggest importer of crude oil.
In its latest East Asia and Pacific October 2023 Economic Update on Sunday, the World Bank kept its Chinese growth estimate for 2023 at 5.1% compared to the April forecast but cut the 2024 GDP growth projection to 4.4% from 4.8% growth expected in April.
“Growth in China is projected to be 5.1 percent in 2023, faster than the 3.0 percent in 2022. But growth has slowed since April, due to subdued domestic demand and persistent difficulties in the real estate sector,” the World Bank said in the October economic update.
“In 2024, improving external conditions will help growth in the rest of the region but persistent domestic difficulties in China – the fading of the bounce back from the re-opening of the economy, elevated debt, and weakness in the property sector, structural factors such as aging – will weigh on growth in China, slowing it to 4.4% in 2024,” the bank noted.
Growth in the East Asia and Pacific region excluding China is expected to edge up to 4.7% in 2024, “as recovery in global growth and easing of financial conditions offsets the impact of slowing growth in China and trade policy measures in other countries,” according to the World Bank.
So far this year, China’s uneven rebound from the re-opening from the Covid lockdowns has weighed on global commodity prices, in particular crude oil, copper, and iron ore.
Oil prices were depressed for most of the second quarter, due to the flailing Chinese recovery, until the market started to tighten in July with the OPEC+ production cuts and the additional 1-million-bpd output reduction from Saudi Arabia.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
ADVERTISEMENT
More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:
Asian Oil Imports Decline For A Second Consecutive Month
Analysts Raise Oil Price Forecasts As Market Tightens
Will We See $100 Oil In October?
Related Knowledge Center: Climate economics
Climate change is now a driver of the world’s economy. The impact is profound:
- Catastrophic weather events — hurricanes, floods, droughts, high temperatures — are more frequent and more extreme. The cost can be measured in both the initial damage caused and the longer-term impact on the economy.
- Vulnerable communities are increasing climate-related investments, hardening infrastructure and taking other protective measures.
- Investment in carbon capture and storage technologies is increasingly rapidly.
- Governments are making investments and crafting regulations to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
On top of all of this is the cost of uncertainty. As the Fourth National Climate Assessment, released in 2018 by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, says, “The assumption that current and future climate conditions will resemble the recent past is no longer valid.”