WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2024-2028) - World Meteorological Organization WMO
WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2024-2028)
The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update is issued annually by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It provides a synthesis of the global annual to decadal predictions produced by the WMO-designated Global Producing Centres and other contributing centres for 2024-2028.
According to the latest report, there is an 80 percent likelihood that the annual average global temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years.
The global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2024 and 2028 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.9°C higher than the 1850-1900 baseline. It says that it is likely (86%) that at least one of these years will set a new temperature record, beating 2023 which is currently the warmest year.
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- 80% likelihood of at least one year temporarily exceeding 1.5°C between 2024-2028
- Short-term (annual) warming does not equate to a permanent breach of the lower 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal
- Likely that at least one of next five years will be the warmest on record, beating 2023
- Report highlights urgency of climate action
About the series
The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update is issued annually by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It provides a synthesis of the global annual to decadal predictions produced by the WMO-designated Global Producing Centres and other contributing centres.
Related Knowledge Center: Climate diplomacy
Talks are well underway in preparation for the next major international meeting on climate change, 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28), scheduled to begin Nov. 30 in the United Arab Emirates.
Much like last year’s COP27, finances — specifically, aid to developing nations — will be at the center of conference deliberations.
The conference faces an even greater sense of urgency brought on by the Sept. 8, 2023, release of the first global stocktake, which calls for accelerated action to meet the goals set in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement (COP21).
Climate diplomacy: COP 27 | Climate diplomacy: COP 28 | Climate diplomacy: COP 29