• Rystad estimates gas flow losses of up to 20–25 Bcfd, driven mainly by the Permian and Gulf Coast, with intrastate pipelines amplifying the impact.
• January Lower 48 gas output is expected to average around 104 Bcfd pre-freeze, with a base-case downside of 3.3 Bcfd and further risks if curtailments deepen.
• Oil production is also affected, with an estimated January loss of 390,000 bpd and a worst-case downside approaching 663,000 bpd.

Rystad Energy tracks 82 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) of flows from interstate pipelines in our North America Gas dashboard. We see an initial loss of about 2 Bcfd from the Bakken, Rockies and the Mid-Continent, followed by a more abrupt drop of 12 Bcfd, primarily driven by the Permian and the broader Gulf Coast region, with losses somewhat limited in Appalachia. In total, we expect the impact could potentially be closer to 20-25 Bcfd given that the Permian and Haynesville regions have more intrastate pipelines, which are not captured in the flow data.

Figure 1 extrapolates this to monthly averages, offering our view on the total impact on January output, based on our initial intelligence of the freeze. Our initial pre-freeze assessment was already down by 1.5 Bcfd compared with our December US Oil & Gas Production Outlook, with January 2026 anticipated to average 104 Bcfd for the Lower 48, excluding offshore Gulf. We see a base case downside impact of 3.3 Bcfd, with the potential for an additional 2.3 Bcfd, primarily driven by a significant curtailment scenario in the Permian similar to Winter Storm Uri in 2021.

For oil, the Lower 48 will likely see a monthly average impact in January of 390,000 bpd – driven significantly by the Permian and PADD 3 more broadly. The impact should be more limited in other oil regions like the Bakken, Rockies and the Mid-Continent. The maximum downside scenario as described above would feature an additional impact of 273,000 bpd.

By Rystad Energy

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

Download The Free Oilprice App Today