Winter blackouts more likely as NYC climate goals force shift to electrical heat - Gothamist

Winter blackouts more likely as NYC climate goals force shift to electrical heat - Gothamist

New York City’s power grid faces the risk of winter blackouts as buildings shift to electrical heating under new climate laws in the coming years.

The energy transition is driven by two laws that impose emissions goals as soon as next month. Local Law 97 forces buildings to phase out the use of fossil fuels starting in 2024. By 2050, all buildings in the city must cut carbon emissions by 80%. Local Law 154 bans the use of fossil fuels like propane, heating fuel and kerosene in new buildings.

The shift spells a huge surge in electricity running through the city’s grid. Con Edison expects electrical demand during peak hours to more than double over the next three decades as New York seeks to drastically shrink its carbon emissions.

By 2035, electric consumption is projected to peak in the winter instead of the summer as a result of the shift from gas heating. The grid currently sees the most demand during warm months, when air conditioners are blasting in apartments. Con Edison says it needs to spend $68 billion over the next decade to keep up with demand.

“Following through with electrification goals and decarbonization goals in the city means using a lot more electricity and the wires that we have both in our buildings, but also connecting to our buildings, aren’t ready for that yet,” said Melissa Lott, research director at Columbia University’s Center for Global Energy.

Boilers in the basement of a large residential building in Prospect Heights, Brooklyn. Boilers like this are being phased out due to city climate laws.

The New York Independent System Operator, which coordinates daily distribution of electricity throughout the state, noted the risk the grid could become less reliable in the next 10 years. In a Dec. 5 report, the group cited the huge investments needed to accommodate the shift to electrical energy.

“The pace of fossil [fuel] generator retirements exceeds the pace of new resource additions,” the New York Independent System Operator wrote.

The expected boom in electrical heating, cooking and transportation is “forecasted to have profound impacts on how the grid operates,” the report reads. “As the demand on the grid grows at a rate greater than the build out of [electrical] generation and transmission, deficiencies could arise.”

Most of the electricity in the city’s grid comes from 24 power plants in the five boroughs that rely mainly on fossil fuels. The power plants are run by private companies or the state-run New York Power Authority.

Con Ed oversees the elaborate series of networks fed by high voltage transmission lines from those power plants.

Lott said Con Edison needs to build modern electrical infrastructure that connects to renewable energy facilities, which could be as far away as Upstate New York or Canada.

Con Ed released a plan in 2022 that includes spending $22.3 billion to improve the grid’s reliability.

"Con Edison supports the electrification of buildings and transportation as keys to the clean energy future that our customers want and that the reality of climate change requires,” said Con Ed spokesperson Allan Drury.

But there are signs that the electrical grid is already straining under growing demand.

During a heat wave in July 2019, an equipment failure knocked out power on Manhattan’s West Side for several hours. Days later, Con Ed cut off electricity to thousands of Brooklyn residents because the grid was overloaded.

Heating consultant Matt Ahern points at cables running from a temporary boiler into a residential building in Brooklyn. He says such setups will become more common as the city's climate laws go into effect.

In September, Mayor Eric Adams extended the deadline for certain building owners to comply with carbon reduction goals and softened the requirements. Advocates criticized the move as slow-rolling the ambitious emissions goals set by the city’s climate laws.

Those laws have drawn criticism from the Transport Workers Union, which represents National Grid workers whose livelihoods depend on natural gas infrastructure.

Matt Ahern, the chair of TWU Local 100’s subway car division, who moonlights as a heating consultant, said the city is unprepared for the electrical transition. He argued many buildings will use “workarounds,” such as temporary diesel generators, to avoid bans on natural gas for heating.

“You’re going to get temporary boilers all over the place,” said Ahern. “You’re going to get oil fire generators that are creating electricity for individual buildings that are running on oil instead of natural gas.”

But Amy Turner, the director of the Cities Climate Law Initiative at Columbia Law School, called concerns about the electrical transition “overblown.” Nearly 90% of buildings subject to the city’s new energy efficiency and emissions goals are currently in compliance.

“Only the buildings that are the absolutely worst emitters in the city have to do anything substantive,” Turner said.