Will we get snow? From woolly bear caterpillars to NOAA's climate ... - KOMO News

Will we get snow? From woolly bear caterpillars to NOAA's climate prediction models | KOMO

SEATTLE — According to weather folklore, the amount of black on the woolly bear caterpillar in autumn can foretell the severity of the coming winter.

Longer black bands on the woolly bear indicate a severe winter. Whereas a wide middle brown band means a mild winter. Supposedly, the position of the longest dark band indicates which part of winter will be coldest.

RELATED | Western Washington's upcoming solar eclipse: What you need to know

But I wouldn't go betting the family farm on the woolly bear's forecast. Turns out, the growing season and age dictate the caterpillar color.

Instead, the hardworking forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center have a more reliable and accurate winter outlook.

Atmospheric and oceanic trends may load the dice in favor of a slightly warmer and drier winter ahead for the Pacific Northwest.

NOAA's long-range forecast model hints at warmer-than-normal conditions across the northern U.S. and Alaska during December, January, and February along with a dry bias, especially over the Inland Northwest.

RELATED | Fat Bear Week is back. Choose your bruin carefurly!

With the help of continued El Niño conditions potentially altering the jet stream in a way that steers storms into the southern part of the U.S., above-normal precipitation is favored this winter from Louisiana to North Carolina.

Will we see snowflakes at sea level this winter season? I'm sure of it! After all, Seattle averages about six inches of snow any given winter.

RELATED | Early snowfall at Mount Rainier hints at upcoming winter wonderland in western Washington

But I have a hunch we may be off the hook for a major lowland snowstorm this cold-weather season.