Why Trump’s nuclear export controls won’t stop China, may hurt US firms: analysts
China’s nuclear ambitions may face a slight setback from Washington’s reported export restrictions on power plant components, but Beijing will press ahead with its construction drive and intensify efforts to develop home-grown technologies as its domestic reactors mature, analysts said.
The Trump administration has reportedly suspended licenses for the export of some nuclear power generation equipment to China. The US Department of Commerce issued the ruling in recent weeks, according to Reuters, as the two superpowers remain locked in a protracted trade war – with battles in the technology arena escalating through tit-for-tat bans and other coercive actions.
The move signals a tougher US stance, but analysts said halting sales of nuclear technology would not be a game-changer – and could even backfire, as US suppliers like Westinghouse and Emerson risk losing out on the vast Chinese market.
“Nuclear power generation is one of the areas in which China has made obvious progress in swapping out imported tech and parts. America’s curbs on chips and chipmaking lithography machines have real teeth, but nuclear does not,” said a researcher with a Shenzhen institute affiliated with the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
“But there could still be effects, as China plans and builds new nuclear plants to meet energy demand and decarbonise the economy … especially if the production of home-made reactors cannot meet surging demand and you cannot buy AP1000 reactors from Westinghouse,” said the person who requested anonymity.
Several large nuclear power bases in China, which provide electricity to economic hubs such as Guangdong and Zhejiang, currently use AP1000 reactors, with additional units under construction.
However, the impact of export restrictions would become less pronounced over time, the researcher said.
Beijing has committed to developing a self-sufficient nuclear industry based on domestically designed models. Eight of the 10 new reactors that Beijing greenlit in April will use the third-generation Hualong-1, backed by a combined investment of more than 200 billion yuan, to sustain an expansionary push launched in 2020.
While state media tout Hualong-1 as a symbol of self-reliance – with over 90 per cent of components manufactured at home – its design is modelled on foreign technology.
The Shenzhen researcher said Washington’s new export ban would do “a great disservice” to companies like Westinghouse, which risk missing out on new opportunities in what is now the world’s largest market for nuclear power generation products.
“Plants are already being decommissioned in the US and some European countries, meaning less business for Westinghouse,” he said, adding that more clarity was needed on whether the ban would cover reactor coolant pumps and peripheral control systems.
China has 102 commercial reactors in operation or under construction – more than any other country. Investment reached a record high of 146.9 billion yuan (US$20.45 billion) in 2024 – up 52 billion yuan from the previous year, according to the China Nuclear Energy Association.
The ban on nuclear components would add to the growing list of American technologies now restricted from sale to China. Advanced commercial aircraft engine parts have reportedly been subject to China-specific export restrictions, as well as software development tools and other cutting-edge US technologies. Washington has recently warned that any third-party use of Huawei Technologies’ AI chips would
violate its export control restrictions.The US has also accused Beijing of “slow-walking” efforts to remove restrictions on rare earth shipments, which is inflicting pain on hi-tech sectors in the US and elsewhere.
In response, China has protested against Washington’s “abuse” of export bans and insisted that it has the right to review and manage rare earth exports, though in recent days it has signalled a greater willingness to expedite some applications.
The escalating tech rivalry was expected to continue even after last Thursday’s call between the two countries’ presidents broke a stalemate following their trade war truce in May.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who has spearheaded several rounds of US restrictions on China through the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security, is set to join high-stakes talks with China in London on Monday.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will also attend the talks, which will be led on the Chinese side by Vice Premier He Lifeng.