Why Saudi Arabia's Defense Talks With Pakistan Are Raising Concerns
Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are discussing an arrangement that would see Pakistan supply JF-17 fighter jets in exchange for financial support or loans. The development is destabilizing because it pulls Saudi defense planning toward a nuclear-armed partner outside the US security structure that has anchored Gulf deterrence for decades. It means Saudi security decisions would no longer run primarily through Washington, Iran would have to account for Pakistan in any confrontation with Riyadh, and the US would no longer be the sole power able to contain escalation.
Hamas has quietly completed internal leadership elections in Gaza, selecting a new local chief and filling vacancies on its political bureau while the war continues and much of its senior leadership operates underground or in exile. Hamas is trying to save itself structurally and prevent a power vacuum at a critical time. The election went down without any public announcement, suggesting that right now the priority is organizational and not PR.
Iran has shut down IPv6 access, tightening the information blackout as protests persist in several cities despite arrests and force. The demonstrations are being driven by economic pressure and anger at the security response, with repeated crackdowns failing to keep people off the streets. The internal unrest now coincides with sharper external pressure, after Trump publicly warned Tehran of severe consequences if protesters…
Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are discussing an arrangement that would see Pakistan supply JF-17 fighter jets in exchange for financial support or loans. The development is destabilizing because it pulls Saudi defense planning toward a nuclear-armed partner outside the US security structure that has anchored Gulf deterrence for decades. It means Saudi security decisions would no longer run primarily through Washington, Iran would have to account for Pakistan in any confrontation with Riyadh, and the US would no longer be the sole power able to contain escalation.
Hamas has quietly completed internal leadership elections in Gaza, selecting a new local chief and filling vacancies on its political bureau while the war continues and much of its senior leadership operates underground or in exile. Hamas is trying to save itself structurally and prevent a power vacuum at a critical time. The election went down without any public announcement, suggesting that right now the priority is organizational and not PR.
Iran has shut down IPv6 access, tightening the information blackout as protests persist in several cities despite arrests and force. The demonstrations are being driven by economic pressure and anger at the security response, with repeated crackdowns failing to keep people off the streets. The internal unrest now coincides with sharper external pressure, after Trump publicly warned Tehran of severe consequences if protesters are killed. That warning does not point to an imminent strike, but in the wake of Venezuela, challenging the protesters appears to carry higher risk, let alone the domestic risk.
Lebanon’s army says it has disarmed Hezbollah across much of southern Lebanon and established operational control from south of the Litani River to the Israeli border, excluding areas still under Israeli occupation. Army commanders told the cabinet that progress is being slowed by Israeli military positions, buffer zones, and near daily violations of the November 27, 2024 ceasefire, which they say are limiting access and hindering the extension of full state authority in the area.
Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions
Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. (FO / FOG) cleared a key hurdle after shareholders in its Australian unit approved the sale of Falcon’s 98.1% stake in Falcon Oil & Gas Australia to Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN). The vote removes a major condition precedent in Tamboran’s broader plan to acquire all of Falcon’s subsidiaries. Closing is still targeted for Q1 2026. Tamboran will also have the option to pick up the remaining minority shares at no less than the price paid to Falcon.
Galp (GALP.LS) and Spain’s Moeve are in talks to merge their refining, chemicals, and fuel retail businesses into a new European heavyweight, carving out everything upstream in the process. The proposed structure would create two entities: one running about 3,500 fuel stations across Spain and Portugal, and another operating three refineries — Sines, Huelva, and Algeciras — with a combined capacity near 700,000 bpd. Moeve, backed by Mubadala and Carlyle Group, would take the majority refinery stake, while Galp would keep a minority interest north of 20%.
China is moving ahead with a long-signaled consolidation of its energy heavyweights, with Sinopec and state-linked energy financing units being folded into a tighter, centrally controlled structure to create a larger national energy champion. The overhaul is intended to streamline capital allocation, reduce internal competition, and align upstream, refining, and financial firepower with Beijing’s long-term objectives as it focuses on efficiency, balance-sheet discipline, and state direction over market sprawl.
Rio Tinto (RIO) and Glencore (GLEN) have restarted their talks of a merger, reviving a deal that would create the world’s biggest mining company with an estimated value of more than $200B. The discussions are preliminary, coming a little over a year after the last round collapsed, but confirmation from both sides signals the idea is back on the table and being taken seriously. A tie-up would combine Rio’s iron ore dominance with Glencore’s sprawling copper, coal, and trading footprint.
Discovery & Development
Murphy Oil Corp (MUR) just firmed up last year’s Hai Su Vang discovery offshore Vietnam, confirming it’s “significant” and likely bigger than the top end of its already chunky 170–430 MMboe range. Appraisal well HSV-2X hit 429 feet of net oil pay, pushed the hydrocarbon column to roughly 1,600 feet with no water contact, and flowed about 6,000 bpd of 37-API crude. Management is sticking with $1.1–$1.3B in 2026 capex as it lines up more appraisal wells across the Cuu Long Basin, with resource upside still on the table from a shallow reservoir not previously counted. Murphy holds 40% alongside PetroVietnam Exploration Production Corp Ltd and SK Earthon.
Vår Energi (VAR) logged more appraisal progress at Goliat Ridge in the Barents Sea, reporting oil at the Goliat North well as part of its ongoing PL 229 program offshore Norway. The results increase confidence in hydrocarbons across the Realgrunnen and Kobbe formations near the Goliat field, keeping gross discovered resources in the 39–108 MMboe band with a 200MMboe upside. Partners Vår Energi and Equinor are continuing with additional wells and new 3D seismic. It has tie-back potential to the Goliat FPSO.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) announced a new oil and gas discovery at the Baragzai X-01 exploratory well in the Nashpa Block of Pakistan. The new discovery adds more barrels to its domestic portfolio. A cased-hole DST in the Jurassic Datta Formation flowed about 4,100 bpd of oil and 10.5 MMscfd of gas at a strong 3,880 psig, confirming commercial hydrocarbons during testing. The well also proved productive in the deeper Triassic Kingriali Formation, pointing to multiple pay zones within the same structure. With OGDC holding 65% alongside Pakistan Petroleum Ltd and GHPL, the find bolsters local supply at a time when Islamabad is looking to shrink its energy import bill.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) signed an MoU with Turkish Petroleum to jointly explore new oil and gas prospects in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. The deal effectively tightens U.S.–Turkey upstream ties. The agreement was inked by Exxon’s ESSO Exploration International unit and aims to boost exploration efficiency as well as open new acreage. Turkey has momentum in the offshore segment, with Black Sea gas production running near 9.5 MMcm/d in 2025 and reserves lifted further by the recent Goktepe-3 discovery.
China Geological Survey confirmed a breakthrough in unconventional gas exploration in central Hubei Province. Drilling targeted Permian-age shale, delivering industrial gas flows and extending China’s shale gas frontier beyond the Sichuan Basin into western Hubei. The new work added an estimated 133 bcm of shale gas resources. Beijing says the results fit into a broader push that already yielded multiple large oil and gas field discoveries under the last five-year plan.