STATE

New Mexico weather shifts match climate warnings

A New Mexico Tech expert says intensifying heat, shrinking snowpack and drought reflect decades of Southwest climate projections.

New Mexico’s increasingly erratic weather, from intense monsoon bursts to dwindling snowpack and deepening drought, reflects long‑standing climate projections for the Southwest, according to Zeljka Stone, director of the Climate and Weather Consortium at New Mexico Tech.

Stone said climate models have warned for decades that the region would become warmer and drier, and recent conditions show those predictions unfolding across the state.

“For pretty much a couple of decades, we have been warning that this is a scenario that’s going to come to play, and it’s heartbreaking to see it happen,” Stone said in a recent interview.

She noted that climate change must be understood as a long‑term process, not a single wet monsoon or snowy winter. Even strong seasonal precipitation does not reverse the broader warming trend.

“It is difficult to talk about global warming in terms of single years, since climate scientists focus on systematic changes over multiple years,” Stone said. Temperature fluctuations are normal, she added, but they now occur on top of a higher baseline, making extremes more severe.

Stone explained that as average global temperatures rise, the Southwest’s baseline temperature rises with it.

“The baseline is not 70 degrees anymore — it’s 72,” she said. “And when fluctuations happen around 72 instead of 70, they’re going to be more extreme.”

Climate models, run in large ensembles over decades, consistently show the Southwest trending toward higher temperatures, reduced snowpack and more severe drought cycles, Stone said.

Even when winter storms deliver heavy snowfall, Stone said warming disrupts the timing that historically sustained rivers and reservoirs.

“You can get lots of snow, but if you get it at the wrong time of year and it melts too early, you’re in drought again by spring,” she said.

Stone cautioned that a single wet summer does not signal recovery.

“In the long run, it doesn’t really matter,” she said. “We’re still not going to get as much snow as we used to, and we’re going to be in more droughts than we have been.”

Stone said scientists are now certain the warming trend is human‑driven, citing decades of independent research.

“Three years later, we are 100% sure. Math doesn’t lie,” she said.

She argued that meaningful climate action must come from large‑scale policy and corporate responsibility, not just individual choices.

“It’s not enough to say, ‘I’ll put solar panels on my roof,’” she said. “What really needs to happen is awareness that politicians must put responsibility on the big guys.”

Stone pointed to past successes, such as global action to repair the ozone layer, as evidence that coordinated policy can work.

New Mexico, she said, is not adequately preparing for the impacts already unfolding. Farmers and ranchers bear the brunt of water shortages while large corporations remain insulated.

“All the consequences of this drought are currently on farmers and ranchers,” she said. “They haven’t irrigated since June.”

Stone also raised concerns about proposed data centers in desert regions, which require large amounts of water and energy.

“They like the lack of moisture because evaporative cooling works better,” she said. “But they’re doing this in the desert where there is no water.”

Despite the challenges, Stone said she remains optimistic.

“The human race, when faced with a big catastrophe, can get together and change things for the better,” she said.

The El Defensor Chieftain in Socorro is a sister newspaper of the Journal.