Why the EU is about to cripple its next climate target

While CO2 removals aren’t a controversial idea — scientists widely consider them necessary to reach net zero by 2050 — depending on them to meet earlier targets is tricky, as the carbon absorption capacity of the EU’s forests is actually declining and technological removals aren’t yet available at scale. 

Heavily forested Sweden rejects depending on nature outright in its position paper. “In achieving the 2040 target, the EU cannot rely on hard-to-reach commitments for net removals in the [land and forest] sector,” Stockholm writes.

Vandenberghe, the Commission’s climate director, also said the EU executive was considering “flexibility between sectors,” meaning less rigid sub-targets. 

The target is now certain to include some of the options EU governments are demanding, von der Leyen’s second-in-command, Teresa Ribera, confirmed to POLITICO in May — though she felt the need to warn against watering down the target too much. 

The ever-increasing flexibility has even those who initially backed some loopholes now worrying the target may no longer stand up. 

German center-right Member of the European Parliament Peter Liese, who helped Hoekstra set up talks with Berlin and advocated carbon credits, appeared to have second thoughts about pushing the Commission for more leeway. 

“The question is, how much flexibility will we end up with? I still believe that a rigid 85 percent target would have been better, because you can become so flexible that at some point you don’t end up with much,” he said. “But 90 percent is extremely ambitious, and while flexibilities are risky, they are now the solution for getting us out of this dead end.”