Why Climate Change Is Making Greenland Even More Strategically Important

The Arctic is warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the planet. This cataclysm—both climatic and strategic—is quietly redrawing the map of the world.

Seas once locked in ice are opening up, new trade routes are emerging, and military powers are intensifying their displays of presence. This context sheds new light on Donald Trump’s renewed ambitions for Greenland. In 2019, the former United States president had already vaguely suggested that he wanted to “buy” the autonomous Danish territory. Today, his project has taken on a far more serious—indeed explosive—dimension. Trump has come to view Greenland as a strategic outpost and a potential trove of untapped resources: diamonds, lithium, copper—everything currently driving the global energy transition. Much of this newly perceived value stems directly from climate change, which he continues to dismiss as “fake news,” writes The Washington Post.

For Sherri Goodman, a researcher at the Atlantic Council think tank and former United States Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Environmental Security, the connection is clear. “In part, the melting of the ice sheet makes Greenland more attractive for the kind of economic development that Trump envisions,” she notes. On January 12, discussions between Washington, Copenhagen, and Nuuk collapsed. Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen cited “fundamental disagreements.” Meanwhile, Donald Trump announced new tariffs targeting several European countries that had “sent troops to Greenland.” Some analysts fear that the American president may now be contemplating a de facto annexation of the territory, even at the risk of destabilizing NATO.

This episode illustrates how inextricably linked climate change and geopolitics have become. According to Joseph Majkut, Director of the Energy and Climate Change Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), “the seasonal retreat of Arctic ice will create a new arena for economic and defense competition. And while we have long known this was coming, we are probably at a tipping point.”

Since the 1980s, summer sea ice has been retreating year after year, opening shipping routes that were once unimaginable. The Northeast Passage along Russia’s coastline is now used regularly by cargo ships, as is the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Last October, a Chinese container ship shortened its journey between Asia and Europe by twenty days by skirting the North Pole via northern Siberia—a record that prompted major global shipping companies to take notice.

Behind this promise of a more interconnected world, however, lies a growing risk. Without the ice that once served as a barrier, Arctic communities are losing their natural shield against storms and rising sea levels. “Sea ice has traditionally played a buffering role against strong winds and high waves,” explains climatologist Zack Labe. Without it, erosion and flooding could worsen. Clearer shipping lanes do not guarantee safer navigation. Ocean conditions are becoming increasingly unpredictable: shifting winds, higher waves, and vast areas without ports or rescue infrastructure. “This could actually make shipping more dangerous, not less,” Labe warns.

Donald Trump, for his part, views these developments as nothing more than a strategic opportunity. He remains steadfast in his climate-skeptical stance, and his administration has further reduced budgets for Arctic and climate change research. In doing so, however, he risks weakening the position of the United States in a region that has become central to global security. “Climate change is a major national security risk. The opening of new shipping routes and changes in ice conditions are already fueling geopolitical tensions,” Sherri Goodman warned. | BGNES