Where is the Carney who warned of climate change?

When anyone hears Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre talk about climate, one could wish he would read a book on the subject, or even the Cole’s Notes version. On the other hand, listening to our prime minister, one could wish he would read his own book.

On page 273 of his 2021 book “Values,” he wrote: “The carbon budget to limit temperature rises to below catastrophic levels is rapidly being exhausted. If we had started in 2000, we could have hit the 1.5 C objective by halving emissions every 30 years. Now, we must halve emissions every 10 years. If we wait another four years, the challenge will be to halve emissions every year. If we wait another eight years, our 1.5 C carbon budget will be exhausted.”

It was 10 years ago, nearly to the day, that Carney first made his mark as a climate-aware citizen. In his famous speech to Lloyd’s of London, (delivered Sept. 29, 2015), he changed the international conversation.

That speech, “Breaking the Tragedy of the Horizon — climate change and financial stability,” focused on the deep and complex reality that only action in the short term can prevent global catastrophe that will be felt long term and forever. It was brainy and thoughtful.

He warned that to stay within the level of global warming that would allow human civilization to remain viable, most of the known reserves of fossil fuels have to remain in the ground. He explained that they would become “stranded assets” of “unburnable” carbon. “While there is still time to act, the window of opportunity is finite and shrinking.”

And yet, here we are, barrelling toward the levels of global warming that Carney himself described as “catastrophic” and the entirety of his actions as prime minister amount to weakening Canada’s response.

Worse, he has refused to confirm he remains committed to achieving the minimum — that Canada will deliver on our own targets under the Paris Agreement. We pledged to reduce greenhouse gases to 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.

The targets embedded in the UNFCCC and are legally binding under international law. The most recent Canada Climate Institute report estimates that we are very far from our goals, with Canada on track to achieve 20 to 25 per cent reductions against 2005 levels, confirming our record as the worst performer of the G7.

What gives? Has Carney, as prime minister and newbie politician, been unable to extricate himself from the same political traps that he described 10 years ago? Is he a captive of the tragedy of the horizon? Is the science of atmospheric physics and chemistry upended by the overwhelming force of Liberal short-term thinking and opportunism? Does power corrupt so thoroughly that our own children’s futures disappear through the economists’ lens of the discount rate?

As prime minister he has faced climate disaster upon climate disaster. Wildfires that threaten to bankrupt provinces, heat domes that are life-threatening, persistent prairie drought that decimates crops — all of them calling for federal bailouts, while failing to connect the dots to oilsands expansion.

Deep down I have to hope the former governor of the Bank of England who delivered that speech, who wrote that book, is still in there somewhere.

Please Mark Carney, where did you go?