When it rains, it rains harder: How climate change is affecting York ... - York Dispatch

When it rains, it rains harder: How climate change is affecting York County weather
Noel Miller

In just the past few months, York County has seen just about every type of weather: Heat waves, flash floods, a monthslong drought — that the extreme rain events did little to quench— and even tornadoes.

All of this raises an obvious question: How much of our recent extreme weather can be attributed to climate change?

One thing is nearly assured. York County, along with the rest of the globe, is experiencing the effects of man-made climate change, due in large part to rising temperatures tied to the greenhouse effect. That is, the tendency of our shared atmosphere to retain more heat as humans emit more greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, from our factories, homes and vehicles.

Frequency increased: The impacts of this chain of events are already being felt. One example in York County is the increasing frequency of significant rain events.

“A 100-year flood is not true anymore," said Bill Syrett, a Penn State University professor of meteorology. "That’s because the hydrologic cycle the water cycle speeds up as the atmosphere warms, [and] more moisture can get into warmer air and that leads to heavier rain events.”

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Recently released data analysis from the nonprofit First Street Foundation showed that York County is far more likely to see 1-in-100-year rain events than in the past. Another way to define a 1-in-100-year storm is to think of it as there is a 1% chance during any given year that these intense extreme rain events could happen.

First Street, using climate-adjusted data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, estimated that York County can expect to see the equivalent of a 100-year storm once every 11 years. That increases the likelihood of extreme rainfall — and subsequent flooding — to a 9% chance in any given year.

And massive rainfall isn't the only kind of danger York County could experience as the global average temperature increases: First Street's analysis showed increasing risk from fire, heat and rain across much of Pennsylvania, as well.

Earlier this month, NASA confirmed that 2023 marked the hottest summer on record. Temperatures in June, July and August were 0.41 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than any previous summer on record.

Overall, about 8 in 10 U.S. adults say that in the past five years, they have personally felt the effects of extreme weather, such as extreme heat or drought, according to a recent Associated Press poll. Most of them – 54% of the public overall – say what they experienced was at least partly a result of climate change.

They're not wrong.

“It is a reality that regardless of where you are in the country — where you call home — you’ve likely experienced a high impact weather event firsthand,” said Rick Spinrad, NOAA's administrator, in a recent speech on the subject.

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Back in July 2018, York County experienced devastating flash flooding from extreme precipitation that was recorded as 308% of the average rainfall for that month, according to local meteorologists.

There may not be more storms per year, but when it does rain, it rains harder.

And it's not just the risk of flooding from these extreme rain events, but damage from wind and lightning as well. Just weeks ago, two tornadoes touched down in York County on the same August day.

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Syrett noted the impact far-flung weather events can have on central Pennsylvania. Canada's record wildfire season, for example, resulted in Harrisburg and the surrounding area having the worst air quality in the world for a day.

Staying safe: How can you stay safe in the face of increasing extreme weather?

There are a variety of resources available at the state and county level.

Fact sheets and hazard mitigation plans for a variety of weather-related events and other emergencies are available at the York County Planning Commission website at https://www.ycpc.org/440/Hazard-Mitigation-Resources.

For flooding in particular, the county notes the dangers of flash flooding, which can damage infrastructure like roads quickly and without advanced warning, as well as the risk of winter floods sending debris downstream near bridges and dams.

The county advises residents to create family emergency communication and family disaster plans to establish ways to stay in contact, regroup and handle emergencies.

Emergency kits are also recommended for residents to have, and the county has links to Red Cross recommendations for how to build them.

Digital alerts and warnings are also available and the county has a list of apps and resources that residents can sign up for.

Cutting emissions: Gov. Josh Shapiro organized a working group of representatives from the oil and gas industries, labor unions and environmental groups to discuss the the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, or RGGI, which could result in limits on the state's emissions.

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Young activists in Montana, meanwhile, won a landmark legal case in which a state district judge determined that officials violated the state's constitution by refusing to consider the impact of such pollution. Pennsylvania faces similar scrutiny over its own constitutional right to "clean air and pure water."

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

— Reach Noel Miller at NMiller3@yorkdispatch.com or via Twitter at @TheNoelM.