But What If It's a Tie?
For the moment we are all waiting to see just how mad Donald Trump is. Not how angry — we know that — but whether he is actually mentally deranged enough not only to announce he is going to commit war crimes, which he has done, but to then commit them, in a war of his own impulse against a country with which we were negotiating peace. Also, he seems to be hinting at the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
That is what we do now in the United States: Wait to see how bad it will be.
So while we are waiting impotently, I’d like to discuss the likelihood of an intriguing scenario I have been noodling over.
What happens if we manage to remain intact as a country until the midterms, and then, after the elections, the Senate is split 50-50? This is generally considered a long shot. But how much of a long shot? I have researched this by reading the work of statisticians and political analysts wiser than I am, and consulting AI, and it turns out that the consensus is that there is currently a 15-20 percent chance that the Senate will wind up deadlocked between Democrats and Republicans. That’s a little better than the odds of three tails in three straight coin flips. That’s not that far-fetched.
Now, we know what we THINK will happen in that situation. We think that the Republican party will continue to run the Senate because the thoroughly egregious vice president has the deciding vote, meaning the Senate remains in control of the existing Republican leadership, who will still control committee chairmanships, and have the ability to set agendas, deep-six progressive proposals, bury embarrassing scandals, and whatnot. A razor-thin margin, but still one that retains the frayed, disgracefully compromised reins of leadership that remains under the thrall of the dreadful president.
But … what if?
What if by November that thing happens — a 50-50 split? And what if at least one person proves to be morally uncorrupted, a Republican with an acute sense of the weight of history, someone who understand the nobility, and the historical glory, of choosing patriotism over politics? What if that one person concludes that there is every reason to to be terrified of two more years with a mentally unstable, reckless, swinish, infantile, vindictive sociopath at the helm, and the fate of the country and the world in the balance?
Less nobly but equally importantly: What if that one person calculates that the guy’s popularity is so deep in the soup, that he is so tainted in the public eye, that crossing him no longer necessarily entails ending your career? And what if that person is promised a great committee chairmanship, plus some fabulous post-retirement sinecure (ambassador to the Seychelles?) in return for his or her act of conscience?
And so: What if that person decides to desert the Republican party and become an independent who caucuses with the Democrats, thus flipping the Senate, replacing its corrupt and spineless leadership and helping to blunt the power of the sitting president, and paving that way for his swift impeachment and conviction?
Should that 50-50 circumstance occur, I would estimate that the odds of just one Republican in 50 flipping to be roughly the odds of getting tails on one flip of the coin. No?
String those two together — three tails, and then a fourth, and the mathematical odds of all of those things happening are 6.5 percent. As of now. Before the full insanity-depravity nexus finally hits.
It’s far-fetched but it has happened before, and with enormously lower stakes.
In 2001, after the previous year’s elections left a 50-50 split in the Senate, Republican Jim Jeffords of Vermont — sick of his party’s ominous lurch to the right under George W. Bush — did just that. He flipped off his party, and flipped the Senate. Tom Daschle replaced Trent Lott as majority leader.
Does the political climate seem right? Two days ago it was reported that on the political prediction market platform Kalshi, on the question “Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump’s presidency?” — the “yes” betting has just lurched from from 28.6% to 35.1%.
In case you are calculating, that’s three tails out of five coin flips.
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Here is a photo the quick and nimble Rachel Manteuffel shot WHILE DRIVING yesterday. It was of a car she saw in traffic. It was a Nissan Leaf.
And finally, as to the political scenario I have suggested:
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