'This war is a reckoning for our energy system – the green solution is clear'

Crude oil remains the backbone of the global economy. Ships, trucks, and planes all rely on heavy fuels refined from crude. Yet global crude supply has plateaued for more than a decade, as new discoveries and development struggle to keep pace with depletion, let alone create surplus for rising demand.

In response, the world has leaned heavily on natural gas liquids (NGLs), pretending they are a substitute. They are not. NGLs are valuable for petrochemicals, but they cannot produce the diesel, aviation fuel and marine fuels that keep the arteries of global trade flowing.

A reckoning was inevitable. At some point in the not-too-distant future, the world was bound to find itself short of affordable heavy fuels. The war in the Middle East has simply accelerated that moment and exposed a reality that was easier to ignore.

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed for a month, politicians and companies worldwide are waking up to the fragility of fuel security. Economies are already contemplating rationing, a scenario that seemed inconceivable only weeks ago.

Energy security has long been taken for granted. Fuel security even more so. But the truth is sobering: the world has not been able to meaningfully increase crude production for over a decade, and by the 2030s, depletion will likely overwhelm new supply. That leaves us with one option: find alternatives for the sectors most dependent on heavy fuels.

One of the most viable, scalable alternatives lies in harnessing abundant wind and solar power to produce new forms of fuel. Renewable energy is no longer just about electricity generation. At scale, wind and solar can be converted into green hydrogen and green ammonia, creating entirely new supply chains for transport fuels.

While green hydrogen and green ammonia have often been framed as climate solutions for hard-to-abate sectors, the current crisis highlights an equally critical benefit: fuel resilience. These projects are not just climate solutions; they are supply chain solutions. Fuels derived from wind and solar power can substitute diesel, aviation, and marine fuels, insulating economies from the volatility and fragility of crude markets.

The urgency is clear. While the current conflict may be a short‑term disruption, the structural issues behind it are long term. By the 2030s, the world will need alternative ways of producing fuels at scale, and wind and solar offer the resource base to do this sustainably. History also reminds us that carbon-heavy alternatives, like coal‑to‑liquid, are no solution. Clean fuels derived from renewables are now superior, both economically and environmentally.

Large-scale renewable fuel projects, developed in reliable jurisdictions with world-class wind and solar resources, offer a meaningful path forward. They can provide supplemental supplies that strengthen resilience today and build independence for tomorrow.

Projects such as the Australian Renewable Energy Hub and the Western Green Energy Hub, each comparable in size to small countries, demonstrate that wind and solar powered fuel production can scale. Technologies such as the P2(H2)Node, which break mega‑projects into modular, factory-produced “Lego blocks,” show how costs can be driven down and replicated globally.

This latest war in the Middle East has exposed the fragility of our global fuel system. The response cannot be incremental; it must be bold. Projects that harness wind and solar power to produce green hydrogen and green ammonia must be accelerated, treated as strategic infrastructure, and recognised for what they are: the only credible path to both fuel and climate security.

Policymakers often focus narrowly on electricity generation when they think of renewables, but the real vulnerability lies in transport fuels. Ships, trucks and planes cannot run on electrons alone. Without a plan for heavy fuels derived from wind and solar power, energy security will remain an illusion.

The priority now is collaboration. Governments, industry, and investors must align to turn renewable potential into reality. Giga‑scale projects in stable jurisdictions such as Australia offer diversification, resilience, and a clean transition. They demonstrate that green fuels can scale, and technologies that modularise production can replicate this success globally.

A breaking point has arrived. Hesitation will leave economies exposed to rationing, volatility, and geopolitical shocks. Acceleration will deliver resilience, independence, and zero emissions. The choice is stark: cling to a fragile past, or build a secure future powered by green fuels.