The War Over Prediction Markets Is Just Getting Started

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are booming, and so is a fight among regulators, lawmakers, and advocates over their legality.

The political fight in the US over the future of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi has escalated into a full-blown war, and battle lines aren’t being neatly drawn along party lines. Instead, conservative Mormons have aligned themselves with Las Vegas bigwigs, and MAGA royalty is siding with liberal Democrat lobbyists. One side argues that the platforms are breaking the law by operating as shadow casinos. The other insists they are just giving people access to legitimate financial markets already subject to adequate government oversight. Neither camp is backing down.