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Video: Can polls tell us who will win on Election Day?

Pew Research Center · Sara Atske · last updated
We often hear a candidate is leading, trailing, or the race is tied. This is based on “horse race” polling, which estimates how much support candidates have, based on how people answer surveys. But accurately measuring the horse race is hard due to different circumstances.

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State of Play

Polls are considered essential to the businesses of politics and journalism. What they contribute to the quality of political journalism is subject to debate. 


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State of Play

News organizations are scrambling to find a coverage approach that adequately informs the American public about the country’s slide from democracy to authoritarian rule.

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