USM professor says 'record-breaking' heat is both climate & weather - WDAM

USM professor says ‘record-breaking’ heat is both climate & weather

HATTIESBURG, Miss. (WDAM) - Mississippians are used to hot summers, but the 2023 summer’s triple-digit temperatures are some for the record books. Adding unusual storm activity and poor air quality from fires across the U.S. and Canada raises questions and concerns about what comes next.

Kayla Stan, Ph’D., an assistant professor in the geography and geology program at the University of Southern Mississippi (USM) School of BEES (Biological, Environmental, and Earth Sciences), said multiple factors impact the year’s weather extremes.

“Having hot days, or even hot years, doesn’t necessarily mean that everything is going to start boiling forever,” Stand said. “Just like one year of drought, while frustrating for people who rely on the land, doesn’t mean there will always be drought.

She added that it’s essential to understand the differences between weather and climate to understand better what is happening.

“Part of what is playing into the heat is likely El Nino, an irregularly recurring flow of unusually warm surface waters from the Pacific Ocean that disrupts weather patterns,” Stan said. “And with that, if it sticks around for the winter, we should probably see a bit of a wetter winter down here (in Mississippi and the South), in theory. “Where this starts to get concerning is if we see a pattern of this over decades.”

El Nino is an example of a weather pattern, and Stan said these patterns are often confused with climate changes.

“This is where we get into some of the very common misconceptions surrounding climate change,” she said. “A main (misconception) being, ‘If the temperature as a whole is warming, how come we got some of the coldest days on record around Christmas in the south this past winter?’ And, just as in weather, lots of factors play into it. So just because climate - the combination of weather patterns over decades - is warming or changing, that doesn’t mean you cannot get unseasonably hot years or unseasonably cold years. And if next year we have a summer with temperatures in the 60s, that doesn’t mean the climate isn’t changing.”

Stan said the big concern is that weather extremes shift with climate change.

“So instead of a heatwave that might happen once every 10 years, or a flood that happens once every 50 years, or a hurricane that happens once every 100 years, those extremes might show up more frequently,” she said. “Maybe that massive hurricane starts appearing once a decade, and the floods happen every eight years, and the heat wave happens every 2-3 years. Those are the concerns when we hear things like the record-breaking heat this year, the fires burning clear across Canada, or the floods causing massive damage throughout Asia.

“In general, we seem to be breaking heat and high-intensity precipitation records more frequently, so we can probably expect more along those lines. Not every summer will be this hot for this long, but they will probably happen more often. And the same with very high-intensity rainfalls, which is a fairly common trend that is being seen as well.”

Stan said she frequently fields questions about the weather and climate change from her students and others - including whether or not this year’s fires that raged across her native home of Canada are normal. Likewise, as she attempts to acclimate to summers in Mississippi, she asks others if current temperatures here are normal.

“From what I have heard from the folks who have been down here longer than I have, this summer has been unseasonably warm, even for Mississippi, and likewise in Canada,” she said. “And while it is very common for Alberta and British Columbia to have fires, the seasons started far earlier and were far worse than normal. And the fires that happened in Quebec are rather out of the ordinary. We wonder, then, how out of the ordinary are these events.”

Stan said she’s hopeful that more awareness about what’s happening to the planet in connection with human activity will lead to action by governments, public and private entities and individuals to mitigate the factors impacting our world’s weather and climate.

“Looking at adaptation strategies is going to be critical, particularly at a local level,” she said. “So how you are designing spaces can have an impact. For example, can you maximize airflow or change the building structures and materials to repel heat, increase green spaces or boulevard-style roads to increase shaded areas, and look at neighborhood design to improve walkability.

“Also, for local governments and organizations, making sure to work to reduce things like power outages needs to be prioritized. No one wants the power to go out in Canada when it is -40 degrees, and no one wants it to go out here when it is +100 degrees.

“And who knows what sorts of technologies we will see coming out of companies to try to work on mitigating some of the changes or improving adaptation. Though, we always must be mindful of the unintended consequences.”

Weather and climate change can majorly impact commerce, economic development and public services. Stan said these impacts often go overlooked when focused on unbearably hot temperatures or erratic, unseasonable weather.

“In the case of the record-breaking heat, if you consider someone who works out in the baking sun - such as in construction, agriculture, fishing, forestry, even those who work in public safety - this kind of heat over extended periods of time impacts the economy,” she said. “Those working in what’s considered hard-labor occupations too often end up taxing their bodies far more, so you see increases in health emergencies like heat stroke, which then taxes the medical system. And then their productivity goes down because they must take time off to recover, or they have to take more breaks so they don’t get heat stroke. Then industry efficiency starts dropping; then supply drops, prices increase and so forth.

“The same sort of thing goes for higher proportions of high-intensity precipitation. If it is pouring rain, it’s pretty tough to roof a house or pave a road. And most people don’t really talk about those situations regarding climate change and severe weather.”

On an individual level, Stan encourages mindfulness by taking simple steps to reduce personal environmental impacts, also known as your “carbon footprint.” She suggested changes like turning up the thermostat a few degrees and walking or biking instead of driving.

“In general, one of the things with climate change is that there seems to be more instability,” Stan said. “But to prepare for the heat turning up further during our Mississippi summers, having plenty of water, a good fan and clothing that allows air movement seem to be the keys to adapting.”

To learn more about Dr. Kayla Stan and the USM School of BEES, visit https://www.usm.edu/biological-environmental-earth-sciences/index.php.

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