USA Hurricane Center Tracking 5 Atlantic Disturbances - Rigzone News

USA Hurricane Center Tracking 5 Atlantic Disturbances | Rigzone

USA Hurricane Center Tracking 5 Atlantic Disturbances

At the time of writing, the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking five disturbances in the Atlantic.

One unnamed disturbance is in the Gulf of Mexico and has an 80 percent chance of cyclone formation in 48 hours, as of 8am EDT, the NHC site outlined.

“Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the central Gulf of Mexico,” a statement posted on the NHC site this morning noted.

“Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form before it reaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline on Tuesday,” the statement added.

“Interests in southern Texas and northern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm watches or warnings are likely to be issued later today,” the statement continued.

Another unnamed disturbance is situated in the eastern tropical Atlantic and has a 40 percent chance of cyclone formation within 48 hours, as of 8am EDT, according to the NHC site.

“Showers and thunderstorms over the Cabo Verde Islands and portions of the tropical eastern Atlantic are associated with a tropical wave,” the statement on the NHC site said.

“Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic,” it added.

The NHC site is also tracking tropical storms Franklin, Gert, and Emily.

As of 5am AST, tropical storm Franklin had maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour and a 12 mile per hour westerly movement and tropical storm Gert had maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour and a nine mile per hour westerly movement, the NHC site showed. Tropical storm Emily had maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour and a 12 mile per hour west-northwest movement, the NHC site highlighted.

In a statement posted on its website earlier this month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) revealed that scientists at its climate prediction center had increased their prediction for the ongoing 2023 Atlantic hurricane season from a near-normal level of activity to an above-normal level of activity.

NOAA said in the statement that its forecasters had increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60 percent, highlighting that the organization’s previous outlook in May predicted a 30 percent chance of this. The likelihood of near-normal activity has decreased to 25 percent, from the 40 percent chance projected in May, NOAA outlined.

In the statement, NOAA said its update to the 2023 outlook calls for between 14 and 21 named storms (winds of 39mph or greater). Of these, six to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74mph or greater), and of these, two to five could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater), NOAA projected in the statement.

Atlantic weather systems have severely affected oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico in the past. For example, at its peak, Hurricane Ida shut in 95.65 percent of Gulf of Mexico oil production on August 29, 2021, and 94.47 percent of Gulf of Mexico gas production on August 31, 2021, Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) figures show.

In October 2020, the BSEE estimated at one point that approximately 84.8 percent of oil production and 57.6 percent of natural gas production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico had been shut-in as a result of Storm Zeta. Several other storms affected U.S. oil and gas production in 2020, including Hurricane Delta, Hurricane Sally, Hurricane Laura, and Tropical Storm Cristobal.

At the time of writing, the BSEE is not reporting any production outages related to the disturbances the NHC is currently tracking in the Atlantic.

In a release sent to Rigzone earlier this month, the Texas Gulf Coast Region American Red Cross warned that “people in our communities are facing another active year of hurricanes” and urged “everyone to get ready now”.

“Across the country, we’re launching nearly twice as many major disaster relief operations as we did a decade ago,” Vanessa Valdez, Interim Communications Director for the American Red Cross Texas Gulf Coast Region, said in the release.

“Because of this dramatic jump in the number of large disasters to which we are responding, we need more volunteers so we can continue providing relief on a near-constant basis to make sure families are supported when they need it most,” Valdez added.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com

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Andreas ExarheasEditor | Rigzone

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