US Sees Oil Output Falling in 2026 in Blow to Trump’s Agenda

Bloomberg · last updated June 10, 2025 – 2:00 PM

The US sees domestic crude production declining next year for the first time since 2021 in a blow to US President Donald Trump’s push for American energy dominance.

Output is now expected to slip to 13.37 million barrels a day in 2026 from about 13.42 million barrels a day from 2025, according to the Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday. The production forecast for next year represents a drop of 120,000 barrels a day from the agency’s previous projections in May.

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