US natural gas futures rise as traders brace for storage report - Yahoo Finance

US natural gas futures rise as traders brace for storage report

Aug 17 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose in the run up to a federal report expected to show a smaller than usual storage build last week as hotter weather boosted cooling demand. Front-month gas futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 6.5 cents, or 2.5%, at $2.66 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 09:53 a.m. EDT (13:53 GMT). Analysts forecast U.S. utilities added 34 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Aug. 11. That compares with an increase of 21 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 41 bcf. If correct, last week's increase would lift stockpiles to 3.064 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 10.8% above the five-year average of 2.766 tcf for the time of year. Despite some expected cooling across much of the northeast region and heat moderation across Texas and surrounding regions, "the temperature factor still appears conducive toward storage surplus contraction," analysts at Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. Data provider Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would be little changed from 103.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 103.8 bcfd next week. These numbers were significantly lower than Wednesday's forecast. Refinitiv said average gas output in the Lower 48 states was 101.7 bcfd so far in August, nearly the same as the 101.8 bcfd in July, and not far from a monthly record of 102.2 bcfd in May. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have fallen from an average of 12.7 bcfd in July to 12.3 bcfd so far in August, mainly due to reductions at Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu facility in Louisiana. That compares with a monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April. The U.S. is on track to become the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023 - ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar - as higher global prices feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to the war in Ukraine. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Aug 11 Aug 4 Aug 11 average Forecast Actual Aug 11 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 34 29 21 41 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,064 3,030 2,516 2,766 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 10.8% 11.2% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 2.63 2.59 8.78 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 12.22 11.99 69.68 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) -- 14.32 53.22 34.11 8.95 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 3 3 1 5 7 U.S. GFS CDDs 225 224 199 185 177 U.S. GFS TDDs 228 227 200 190 184 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week Five-Year Week Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 101.9 101.3 101.4 92.0 U.S. Imports from Canada 7.2 7.1 6.9 8.1 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 109.2 108.3 108.3 100.8 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 1.6 1.3 1.3 2.5 U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.6 6.9 6.4 5.6 U.S. LNG Exports 12.3 12.4 12.5 6.1 U.S. Commercial 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 U.S. Residential 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.4 U.S. Power Plant 46.0 46.4 46.7 41.2 U.S. Industrial 21.3 21.4 21.5 21.5 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 82.6 83.1 83.6 78.0 Total U.S. Demand 103.2 103.7 103.8 92.2 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Aug 18 Aug 11 Aug 4 Jul 28 Jul 21 Wind 7 7 7 7 7 Solar 4 4 4 4 4 Hydro 6 5 5 5 6 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 45 45 45 45 46 Coal 19 19 20 20 19 Nuclear 17 17 17 16 17 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.55 2.65 Transco Z6 New York 1.36 1.44 PG&E Citygate 5.63 6.26 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.28 1.37 Chicago Citygate 2.40 2.46 Algonquin Citygate 1.48 1.52 SoCal Citygate 7.94 8.17 Waha Hub 2.41 2.33 AECO 2.56 2.70 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 30.50 31.00 PJM West 35.00 34.50 Ercot North 992.75 360.75 Mid C 105.75 117.75 Palo Verde 194.25 332.00 SP-15 127.75 342.50 (Reporting by Harshit Verma in Bengaluru Editing by Mark Potter)