U.S. And Europe Face 40% Drop In Food Production, Scientists Warn

The world’s most productive agricultural regions face the greatest losses from climate change, with major farming areas in wealthy nations potentially losing as much as 40% of their maize and wheat production this century, a comprehensive new study has found.

In their analysis of more than 12,000 regions across 55 countries, a team of researchers from top U.S. and international institutions found that for every 1°C increase in global temperature, global food production could decline by approximately 120 calories per person per day—equivalent to 4.4% of current daily consumption.

The study, published in Nature, reveals that even when so-called climate adaptation strategies are undertaken, “breadbasket” regions are particularly vulnerable, and will face substantial reductions in the production of most key food crops, presenting a concerning outlook for global food security.

“It’s almost like in this context, those with the most to lose, lose the most,” said Andrew Hultgren, assistant professor at the University of Illinois and a lead author of the study. “In the U.S., we often think of the impacts of climate change being more heavily felt in poorer regions of the world. Here we find the opposite, where it is U.S. farmers in the heartland that actually face some of the largest risks to their future yields.”

The study comes hot on the heels of research showing global warming has caused an unprecedented increase in drought severity around the world. That paper, from researchers in Europe and the U.K. and also published by Nature, indicates that a record 30% of Earth’s land area experienced moderate to extreme drought in 2022, 42% of which was attributed to atmospheric evaporative demand, a phenomenon caused by higher average temperatures.

The food production study reveals a counterintuitive pattern: modern-day breadbasket regions with favorable climates are particularly vulnerable precisely because of their current advantages. “Wealthy ‘breadbasket’ regions benefit from the very favorable climates they currently enjoy,” Hultgren explained. “They are not exposed to as much extreme heat now, and so are not as adapted to it.”

In contrast, farmers in hotter, lower-income regions have already developed more climate-adaptive practices. “These lower-income regions tend to be located in hotter parts of the world,” Hultgren explained. “They already have to grapple with exposure to heat extremes now, and so have adapted to those heat extremes already.”

The impact on specific crops reveals how current agricultural powerhouses could be transformed. Maize production faces some of the most significant projected losses, with yields potentially declining by up to 40% in several key growing regions, including the U.S. grain belt, eastern China and Central Asia. Wheat production in today’s major producing regions could see losses reaching 30-40% across the United States, Canada, China and Russia.

The study breaks new ground by examining how farmers actually adapt to changing conditions, rather than relying on theoretical models. “For a long time, it’s been an open question how much producers will adapt to future climate change,” Hultgren said. “We find that adaptation is protective, but only partially so—it mitigates about one-third of future yield losses.”

While rice appears to be the only major staple crop that might avoid significant losses, the outlook for other crops remains concerning; the implications for global food security are complex and far-reaching. “Because the most agriculturally productive regions of the world face the highest yield losses, those losses drive down overall global production in a high warming future,” Hultgren noted. “This could result in higher food prices in general and concerns around food security globally.”

While lower-income regions may be better adapted to heat, they still face significant challenges. Cassava, a crucial subsistence crop in many low-income countries, could see losses of around 40% in Sub-Saharan Africa. Because the poorest populations globally often engage in subsistence farming—meaning they farm to grow food for their families rather than to sell it on the market—such communities might be less able to weather such losses.

The researchers went beyond crop projections to calculate how these agricultural losses could influence climate policy through what’s known as the “social cost of carbon”—an attempt to put a dollar value on the damage caused by each ton of carbon dioxide emissions. By calculating how much future crop losses would cost society in economic terms, the team found that agricultural impacts alone could add between $0.99 and $49.48 to the social cost of each ton of CO2, depending on various economic assumptions.

Richard Waite, director of agriculture initiatives at the World Resources Institute, told me why the findings are significant.

“Reduced crop yields, in our world of growing food demand, mean even higher pressure on the world’s remaining forests and other natural ecosystems,” Waite said. “This creates a vicious cycle of additional climate change that then in turn increases the threat to agriculture.”

In Waite’s view, the study’s findings suggest that current adaptation strategies must evolve beyond traditional approaches. “Going forward, the world needs to breed staple crops not only for increasing yield but also for thriving in a changing climate, such as the ability to withstand higher temperatures or increased rainfall variability,” he said.

The new research underscores the urgent need for both more aggressive reductions of emissions, and enhanced support for agricultural adaptation—with failure on either count threatening widespread hunger and unrest.

“Looking beyond our immediate findings, this should raise concerns around global food security and international political stability in a high warming future,” Hultgren concluded.