Trump’s Cherry-Picked Inflation Boast
In one month, from May to June, overall inflation in the U.S. dropped at the “fastest rate in more than six years,” as President Donald Trump said in late July remarks. But he has repeatedly cited the statistic while wrongly suggesting that the inflation rate is now “way down” from when he took office. It’s not.
The big one-month drop came after several months of increases in the inflation rate that were largely due to high oil and gasoline prices caused by the war with Iran. When the U.S. and Iran were honoring a ceasefire agreement in June, those energy prices declined, helping to lower the rate of inflation.
“Energy prices are volatile,” Joseph E. Gagnon, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told us in an email. “Any one-month change needs to be viewed in connection with other recent months, which have shown large increases.”
And the fact that oil and gasoline prices have risen again due to rekindled U.S. fighting with Iran could result in the rate of inflation increasing once again. As of Aug. 5, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland projected a minimal monthly increase in the inflation rate for July – not another monthly rate decrease.
In addition, the annualized rate of inflation in June still was higher than it was when Trump became president in January 2025.
Trump has referred to the latest official inflation figures multiple times while talking up the American economy in recent speeches and remarks.
“And it was just announced that inflation is dropping at the fastest rate in more than six years,” he said at a campaign-style rally in Michigan on July 27. “We’re dropping it. You know, I inherited this mess.”
On July 23, at the Environmental Protection Agency, he said, “You know, we inherited the worst inflation in the history of America from the Biden administration. And as you know, last week, it was announced that inflation is way down. It’s down more than it’s been in over six years.”
And the day before that, in Georgia, he said, “Inflation is way down. We’re coming way down. And last week, it was announced just last week that inflation dropped by the largest amount in more than six years, because we’re doing it right. We’re running the country properly.”
But some of what he claimed was false or misleading.
The president’s claims followed the release of data published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on July 14. After a 0.9% monthly increase in March, a 0.6% increase in April and a 0.5% increase in May, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers — on a seasonally adjusted basis — decreased by 0.4% in June, the BLS said.
“This decline in the all items index was the largest 1-month decrease since April 2020 when it fell 0.8 percent,” the bureau noted in a news release about the latest numbers.
So, that portion of what Trump said is accurate. But it’s only part of the story.
The BLS press release also said, “Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.” And the 3.5% annualized inflation rate in June, although down from 4.2% year-over-year in May, was still higher than the 3.0% annual rate in January 2025 when Trump took office.
The annual rate reached 9.1% in June 2022 under then-President Joe Biden — which still was not the “worst inflation in the history of America” — but had come down significantly by the time Trump was sworn in. The annual rate was down to 2.4% for the 12 months ending in February, right before the war with Iran began.
On the last day of February, the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, beginning the now monthslong conflict. The U.S.-Israeli attack led to Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz – a vital waterway in the Middle East for the export of crude oil and other goods – which caused a spike in oil and gasoline prices that contributed to three consecutive increases in the CPI, from March to May.
Oil and gasoline prices then came down when tensions between the warring nations began to ease in late May, leading to the U.S. and Iran signing a temporary agreement in June to suspend the fighting and open the Strait of Hormuz while the countries negotiated a long-term peace deal.
At the beginning of June, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the U.S. benchmark, was as high as almost $100 a barrel, according to the Energy Information Administration. At the same time, the average U.S. price for regular grade gasoline, which is heavily influenced by oil prices, was about $4.31 per gallon, EIA data show. (Gasoline had climbed to $4.50 a gallon on average in mid-May.)
But by the end of June, WTI crude was down to roughly $71 a barrel and a gallon of gasoline in the U.S. averaged $3.83. The decline in energy prices was the primary reason for the drop in the inflation rate that Trump praised.
“The index for energy fell 5.7 percent in June after rising 3.9 percent in May, 3.8 percent in April, and 10.9 percent in March,” the BLS said in its most recent CPI report. “The energy index was the largest contributor to the monthly all items decrease, more than offsetting increases in other indexes including those for shelter and food.”
Energy prices, however, are also the reason that the decline in the month-to-month inflation rate may not last long.
After the U.S. and Iran were not able to complete a peace deal, the attacks between the two countries resumed in July, and Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was again closed. The U.S. then said it would reimpose a blockade on Iran’s own use of the strait.
As a result, oil and gasoline prices have risen. WTI crude was as high as $93 a barrel on July 23 – before dropping to about $86 on July 31, according to the most recent EIA data. Average gasoline prices, meanwhile, were up to about $4.08 for the week ending Aug. 3.
When oil and gasoline prices went up in March, April and May, the inflation rate increased. That could happen again.
“Setting aside the volatility caused by oil and energy prices, underlying inflation is moving right around 3%, so that’s not going to provide material comfort to households or investors,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for market consulting firm RSM US, told CNN for a July 30 story. “The improvement in June will be partially or completely reversed by the upward volatility in July.”
Gagnon, the Peterson Institute senior fellow, said energy price volatility is a reason that the Federal Reserve and many economists look to so-called “core” inflation, which measures the change in prices excluding energy and food items.
From May to June, the BLS said there was no change in the price index for all items less food and energy. Year over year, core inflation was 2.6% in June — down from 2.9% in May and the 3.3% Trump inherited in January 2025.
In an Aug. 5 update, the Federal Bank of Cleveland’s inflation “nowcasting” model projected that core inflation increased about 0.2% in July and about 2.5% for the 12 months ending in July.
The July inflation report from the BLS is set to be released Aug. 12.
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