Trump tariffs mean uncertain path forward for recycling

• An escalating global trade war sparked by President Donald Trump’s impositions of tariffs has the recycled materials industry on edge.
• It’s possible tariffs could increase demand for domestic recycled steel.

Already navigating years of market swings, the loss of a key importer and difficulties competing with the costs of new plastics and glass, U.S. recycled materials industries now must try to find their footing amid potential global tariff wars sparked by President Donald Trump.

The U.S. recycled materials industry is a net exporter and supports nearly 600,000 jobs nationwide, helping reduce the U.S. trade deficit, according to the Recycled Materials Association, a Washington-based organization representing the industry’s interests.

“The Recycled Materials Association has long supported free and fair trade policies,” association officials said in a statement April 2. “The imposition of new tariffs on our international trading partners will significantly disrupt U.S. manufacturing and recycling operations that depend on recycled material inputs.”

Recycling goes beyond household items such as cardboard, paper, cans, glass and plastic put in curbside containers for pickup. Some of the most lucrative trade comes in recycled scrap metals from industry. While the recycled aluminum, steel and metals trade has fared best, other recyclables have seen significant volatility, particularly after China in 2017 banned the import of nonindustrial plastic from the U.S. after years of being a major market for the materials. Supply and demand jolts amid the COVID-19 pandemic have also shaken markets.

Less than 10% of plastics are recycled globally, and glass container recycling is similarly held back by market forces that allow industries to make new glass and plastics at competitive prices.

“There is almost always a good market for metals, because the cost to make new metals is incredibly high,” said Shelie Miller, a professor and co-director of the Center for Sustainable Systems at the University of Michigan.

“Meanwhile, things like plastics and glass are really operating on a much closer margin. So any increase in recovered material cost is going to make it that much more difficult to compete against the virgin product.”

Trump on April 2, invoking emergency economic powers, ordered the imposition of 10% tariffs on all countries, and an individualized, reciprocal, higher tariff on countries with which the United States has the largest trade deficits. The tariffs were to take effect Wednesday. China, in response, vowed to impose a retaliatory 34% tariff on all U.S. imports, to which Trump then threatened an additional 50% tariff hike.

Michigan recycling grows

Despite a highly successful 10-cent deposit program on beverage bottles and cans, Michigan has historically lagged behind other states in recycling overall. But that has improved in recent years.

The most recent data from April 2024 found a statewide recycling rate of more than 23% in the previous fiscal year, up from 18% in fiscal year 2021. The more than 700,000 tons of recycled products include:

• 330,000 tons of paper and paper products.
• 237,000 tons of metals.
• 67,000 tons of glass.
• 58,000 tons of plastics.

“Michigan’s recycled commodities generally supply domestic markets, supporting Michigan manufacturing and jobs,” said Jeff Johnston, spokesman for the Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy, adding that the agency “continues to monitor actions at the federal level.”

Michael Csapo, general manager of Resource Recovery and Recycling Authority of Southwest Oakland County, said the agency’s sorted products haven’t been shipped directly to overseas markets “for some years.”

“(But) the overall recycling market is part of the globally connected supply chain, and its health is tied to the overall health of the domestic and global economies,” he said. “As such, we are concerned about the current level of economic uncertainty.”

About two-thirds of recycled materials imported into the U.S. come from Canada and Mexico. Those materials to date have been covered under tariff exemptions given by the Trump administration to goods falling under the U.S.-Mexco-Canada Agreement negotiated during Trump’s first term.

“Our biggest concern is probably going to come in the form of retaliation against U.S. exports of our products,” said Adam Shaffer, vice president of international trade and global affairs for the Recycled Materials Association.

The cloudy outlook is not without shafts of light. Miller said it’s possible that if trade wars make raw materials more expensive, domestic markets of recycled materials could become more competitive. And Trump’s emphasis on returning more manufacturing to the U.S. could mean more demand for recycled steel, Shaffer said.

“A lot of the domestic manufacturing goals that the administration has set, our materials are important in helping build that capacity up,” he said. “Seventy percent of steel comes from recycled content. We are ready, willing and able to participate in that.”

Contact Keith Matheny: kmatheny@freepress.com.