Tropical Storm Idalia forms. It could hit Florida’s west coast as a Category 1 hurricane - Miami Herald

Tropical Storm Idalia headed to Florida, strengthening in Gulf | Miami Herald

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Tropical Storm Idalia forms. It could hit Florida’s west coast as a Category 1 hurricane

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Florida’s west coast is likely in for at least a Category 1 hurricane next week, but forecasters warned that it could rapidly intensify into something stronger, and where exactly it will hit is still uncertain.

Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a state of emergency declaration of 33 counties in Florida over Tropical Storm Idalia, and the state has already begun preparing for landfall, which is currently expected late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Idalia officially formed just after 11 a.m. Sunday as it hovered off the tip of the Yucatan, where it’s forecast to stay for another day before moving into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday.

While early storm models are in good agreement on a landfall near Florida’s Big Bend region late Tuesday to early Wednesday, Sunday is all about getting that forecast as exact as possible, since forecasts this far out are all but guaranteed to change.

“If you’re anywhere along the western Florida peninsula, Fort Myers northward to the Panhandle, you’ve really got to be paying attention,” said Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center, in a virtual morning update. “This system can and will change.”

The cone of uncertainty used by the hurricane center does not show where the impacts could occur, it shows a best guess at where the center of the storm could go, which means areas far outside of the cone still see destructive winds, rain and storm surge.

NOAA’s Hurricane Hunters and the Air Force Reserve have seven separate flights scheduled Sunday to check out Idalia. The data they collect will help forecasters at the National Hurricane Center put a pin in the system’s center swirl, which will vastly improve the storm models and help lead to a more accurate prediction.

If the planes find the center of the storm sits more offshore, to the east of current predictions, that could sit the system over some of the warmest waters in the Gulf of Mexico, giving it time and space to strengthen before it launches north into the Gulf.

As of Sunday morning, the hurricane center said the depression was expected to remain in place for about a day before heading into the Gulf. From there, its predicted path skirts some storm-eating wind shear and plows directly into record-hot, storm-fueling waters, raising the chances the system could rapidly intensify into a much stronger hurricane.

“There’s a notable risk of rapid intensification while the system moves across the record warm eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico,” forecasters wrote in the 5 a.m. discussion. “Users are reminded to continue monitoring forecasts for any changes to the system’s expected intensity as it approaches Florida.”

For the last few forecast advisories, the hurricane center’s track has windshield wipered east and west, a nod to all of the models doing the same. That will continue to happen as the storm closes in, which means all Floridians along the west coast should be watching the storm, not just those in the Big Bend area.

“The track should be considered lower confidence until it starts moving in a more consistent manner,” the hurricane center noted.

Rhome, on the morning video update, also cautioned that even a weaker storm could bring dangerous storm surge to Florida’s west coast, which is especially vulnerable to that particular threat.

“It will not take a strong system or a direct hit to produce significant storm surge,” he said.

As of the 2 p.m. advisory, Idalia was about 80 miles east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, headed north at 2 mph.

Parts of the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba’s western coast were under a tropical storm warning and Cuba’s Isle of Youth was under a tropical storm watch.

Florida will likely get its own storm surge and tropical storm watches as soon as Sunday evening, forecasters said in a morning update.

Hurricane Franklin and more

Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, the hurricane center is watching Hurricane Franklin, the second of the season, and a disturbance. As of Sunday afternoon, Franklin was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph maximum sustained winds and on track to become a Category 4 over the next few days.

The powerful storm’s projected path over the week keeps it mostly far from land, deep in the Atlantic. But on Wednesday, Franklin could skirt the coast of Bermuda, potentially bringing damaging winds and heavy rain.

Sunday morning, the hurricane center also began tracking a tropical wave due to roll off Africa’s west coast in a few days. They gave it a near-zero chance of developing in the next two days and 20% shot over the next seven days.

This story was originally published August 27, 2023, 8:19 AM.