Trading volume on prediction markets has soared in recent months
Prediction market trading volume has risen from under $5 billion monthly in mid 2025 to nearly $24 billion in April 2026, with sports dominating.
Prediction markets allow people to trade on the outcome of real-world events, from basketball games to elections. And trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket – the two leading prediction markets – has increased dramatically since mid-2025.
Combined monthly global trading volume on these platforms has risen from less than $5 billion in September 2025 to about $24 billion in April 2026, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of data from The Block, a digital assets media and information firm.
Related Knowledge Center: Prediction markets
Platforms are offering a way for users trade positions — place bets — on a wide range of possible events, and newsrooms are starting to incorporate the data.
As the business rapidly grows, critics and opponents are pushing back. Numerous states have argued that the markets are gambling, and sports gambling in particular is regulated by the state. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, now led by a Trump appointee, disagrees — as did a federal district court judge in a suit involving New Jersey.
Critics see some of the markets as, particularly in the case of military actions, indefensible, and note as well that some large, well-timed bets — “event contracts” — suggest an abuse of insider knowledge of federal actions.