Tornado Outbreak Ongoing: Strong Tornadoes, Damaging Wind Gusts, Large Hail Likely Today In The South
Grave Tornado, Wind, Hail Threat Through Sunday
The South will be in the crosshairs of potentially strong, long-tracked tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, large hail and flash flooding as a tornado outbreak roars eastward.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a 5 out of 5 “high risk” of severe weather for Saturday. This threat level is rare, usually only on a severe weather forecast two to three times each year, and is generally used only when supercells are capable of strong tornadoes, or long-lived squall lines are expected to produce widespread damaging winds.
In their Saturday morning discussion, the SPC noted that “a tornado outbreak is expected across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening.”
Take this threat seriously and know ahead of time where your safe shelter is and have multiple ways to receive warnings, especially since the severe storms could threaten at night in some locations.
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This is day two of the ongoing tornado outbreak. Numerous tornadoes touched down on Friday into early Saturday in the mid-South and Midwest, including several near St. Louis, a damaging tornado in Rolla and one in Hartville, Missouri.
(LIve Updates: Severe Weather Kills More Than 26 People)
Tornadoes touched down near Grace, Mississippi, and Elliott, Mississippi, late Saturday morning along with several others that touched down in northern parts of the state. Early afternoon, a strong to potentially violent tornado began near Kentwood, Louisiana, and quickly moved northeastward into Mississippi near Tylertown and Salem. Several other tornadoes have been confirmed in southern and eastern Mississippi.
Saturday-Saturday Night Forecast: TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED
Thunderstorms are ongoing in a wavy line and in clusters from Louisiana to Tennessee. Numerous warnings of severe weather are in effect.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a “Particularly Dangerous Situation” tornado watch for eastern Louisiana and eastern Mississippi through 6 p.m. CDT, including Meridian and Tupelo, Mississippi. Strong tornadoes, wind gusts up to 75 mph and very large hail are possible in this area.
A “Particularly Dangerous Situation” tornado watch has also been issued for much of Alabama and southern Mississippi until 8 p.m. CDT, including Huntsville, Birmingham and Mobile, Alabama. Strong tornadoes, wind gusts up to 75 mph and very large hail are possible in this area.
The SPC has also issued a tornado watch for Middle Tennessee until 9 p.m. CDT, including Nashville and a tornado watch for parts of far north Georgia, far western North Carolina and east Tennessee until 1 a.m. EDT.
-Locations: The Deep South has the highest risk for severe storms, including parts of Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and the Florida Panhandle. That includes Atlanta; Birmingham, Huntsville and Montgomery, Alabama; Chattanooga and Nashville, Tennessee; and Pensacola, Florida.
The level 5 out of 5 risk for widespread severe storms is from southern Mississippi to western and central Alabama. This area includes Birmingham and Tuscaloosa, Alabama; and Hattiesburg, Mississippi. This is where atmospheric conditions will be most conducive for producing tornadic supercell thunderstorms. You should be in your storm shelters in this area from now into the evening, if not overnight hours, in this area shaded in darker red above.
At least some severe weather could extend as far north as Ohio, West Virginia and western Pennsylvania.
Saturday-Saturday Night’s Severe Thunderstorm Forecast
(Shaded on the map above is the likelihood of severe thunderstorms, according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. Note that not all categories apply for the severe weather risk on a particular day.)-Timing: Severe Thunderstorms will grow in intensity this afternoon in parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee Valley. The most widespread severe weather will unfold in the afternoon and into the overnight hours, spreading from west to east across the threat areas shown above. As an example, the peak threat of severe weather won’t reach the Atlanta metro until the evening or overnight hours.
-Threats: NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center says numerous significant tornadoes, and some long-track tornadoes are expected. In addition, the storms are likely to produce widespread damaging wind gusts and large hail. Flash flooding from heavy rain could impact northern parts of Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, Tennessee and Kentucky.
(MORE: Nighttime Tornadoes Twice As Likely To Be Deadly)
Sunday’s Forecast
-Locations: The cold front might produce additional bouts of severe storms from the mid-Atlantic states to the Southeast as the weekend ends. That includes Charleston, South Carolina; Raleigh, North Carolina; Philadelphia; and Washington, D.C.
Sunday’s Severe Weather Forecast
(Shaded on the map above is the likelihood of severe thunderstorms, according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. Note that not all categories apply for the severe weather risk on a particular day.)-Timing: Leftover storms from overnight, some possibly severe, will likely be ongoing in the morning in parts of the East. A combination of those storms possibly intensifying and new storms developing will keep the threat of severe weather going through the afternoon.
-Threats: Damaging wind gusts are the primary concern, but a few tornadoes are possible. Localized flash flooding could also occur in spots.
Classic Setup
The setup is familiar for March and the rest of spring, with a sharp southward plunge of the jet stream swinging out of the West toward the central and eastern states.
At the same time, the jet stream energy helps to form a strong low-pressure system along a cold front that draws increasing moisture north from the Gulf.
(MORE: Typical Ingredients For An Outbreak)
That combination of ingredients triggers the formation of numerous thunderstorms, some of which could rotate and produce tornadoes in addition to widespread damaging winds and hail.