Terence Corcoran: Carney should join Bill Gates’ climate plan

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Now that Prime Minister Mark Carney has released his first Liberal budget, attention will soon turn to climate change. On Thursday, the 30th Congress of the 195 Parties (COP30) that signed the United Nations’ 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change will open in the Brazilian city of Belém.

Officials in Brazil have confirmed that Carney will attend the 11-day congress, which is taking place in a changing political environment that could transform global climate policy. Nobody is ready to predict the outcome, but there is reason to believe that a shift in focus away from global catastrophism is on the agenda.

The leading newsmaker supporting reform of the climate change agenda is Bill Gates, the bazillionaire founder of Microsoft who in recent years emerged as one of the leading advocates for radical economic action to reduce and eliminate carbon emissions. In his 2021 book, “How to Avoid a Climate Disaster,” Gates supported the Paris Agreement net-zero carbon emissions targets. “Zero is what we need to aim for. To stop the warming and avoid the worst effects of climate change — and these effects will be very bad — humans need to stop adding greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere.”

In a paper last week, however, Gates pulled back from radical carbon rhetoric and shifted focus to another side of the climate change issue: adaptation. The paper — ”Three tough truths about climate: What I want everyone at COP30 to know” — makes important  arguments against aggressive fossil fuel elimination. More importantly, Gates outlines alternative policy options that are already on the Brazil agenda.

Gates now dismisses alarmist claims that nothing matters more than cutting carbon emissions and limiting the rise in temperatures. That “doomsday outlook” is simply “wrong,” writes Gates. It is far more important to have a priority focus on making sure that people can adapt to changing climate conditions as they occur, from heat waves to floods, to hurricanes and wildfires.

Gates lists three “truths” about climate change: 1) it will not be the end of civilization; 2) temperatures are not the best way to measure progress on climate; and 3) health and prosperity are the best defence against climate change. Underlying these truths is what Gates sees as a fundamental reality: the world needs growth and prosperity to deliver improved living standards, better health and general improvement in the human condition. “So I urge that community at COP30 and beyond to make a strategic pivot: Prioritize the things that have the greatest impact on human welfare. It’s the best way to ensure that everyone gets a chance to live a healthy and productive life no matter where they’re born, and no matter what kind of climate they’re born into.”

I repeat these ideas because Gates’ paper deserves to be read and reviewed by all  — from bank CEOs to prime ministers, from climate activists to climate skeptics — before the net-zero stampede produces its own negative and unforeseen destructive impacts. It is also important to bear in mind that the projected catastrophic impacts of carbon emissions are based on modelling and hypothetical assumptions that are not absolute scientific conclusions.

Radical supporters of the idea that carbon emissions pose an existential threat to the planet have been quick to dismiss Gates as a scientific ignoramus. Michael E. Mann, the University of Pennsylvania professor whose specialty  is the science of climate hystericism, predictably declared Gates “misguided.” The only safe and reliable way out when you find yourself in a climate hole, said Mann, is to “stop digging — and burning — fossil fuels.” Other thoughtful critics said Gates was “full of s—t.”

At COP30 in Brazil, however, the Gates approach to the global climate issues — adaptation and mitigation — is set to receive much more attention than zero emissions targets. According to its official Action Agenda, COP30 will target six pillars that “cover efforts for mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology, and capacity-building.”

If not explicit, the COP30 agenda certainly implies reduced attention on the elimination of fossil fuels and carbon emissions. The focus, it says, “begins and ends with people, including women, youth and others.” Agenda subjects include transitioning away from fossil fuels but “in a just, orderly and equitable manner,”  building resilient infrastructure and providing “finance for adaptation.”

In many ways, the COP30 approach is consistent with some of Ottawa’s energy and climate agenda. Carney’s willingness to support fossil fuel pipelines and energy superpowerdom are in line with Bill Gates’s concerns and prescriptions. The energy is needed to keep the global economy growing. At the same time, the uncertain risks of climate change can be addressed by adjusting and adapting to environmental changes, whatever their cause.

Whether Carney and Canada’s corporate and policy wonks are ready to endorse the Gates message is not clear at this point, but the need to adapt to and mitigate the impact of floods and wildfires is sound policy.

In the coming days, Prime Minister Carney should endorse Bill Gates’ moderated approach to climate change.