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Technical Indicators Show Longer Wait for Hopeful Producers Seeking Natural Gas Price Recovery

Natural Gas Intelligence · last updated

Many U.S. producers devoted time during first quarter earnings calls to stress that breakeven prices mean Lower 48 natural gas should be trading north of $3.50/MMBtu, and perhaps even something with a $4 handle. That may prove to be true; especially in 2026, when LNG demand is expected to increase en masse, but it sure does not look to be the case for June prices.

Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) spot Henry Hub daily natural gas price graph showing historical market volatility.

From a technical analysis standpoint, June has had three major bearish moves over the past week: breaking below its upward sloping channel last Tuesday (May 13), falling below its 200-day simple average on Thursday, and gapping lower to start weekly trading on Monday.

By falling to a low of $3.116 Monday morning, June is now essentially in line with current May Henry Hub cash market spot prices at $3.065. We’d expect May cash to drive June futures until the contract goes off the board next week.

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