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Technical Barriers, Stout Supply Prevent Sustained Natural Gas Price Momentum

Natural Gas Intelligence · last updated

Natural gas futures struggled to sustain momentum through August to date and were held in check to start this week by technical resistance and plump levels of supply.

Chart showing NGI’s Daily Henry Hub and U.S. national average natural gas prices compared with prompt-month NYMEX futures and Lower 48 natural gas production from January to August 2025. Prices spiked above $12/MMBtu in late January before stabilizing mostly between $2 and $4/MMBtu, while production remained near 100 Bcf/d with slight fluctuations. Data sourced from NGI’s Daily Gas Price Index, Wood Mackenzie, and Bloomberg.

The September New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) gas futures contract traded on either side of even on Monday. It ultimately slipped 2.6 cents on the day and settled at $2.890/MMBtu. The prompt month slid further early Tuesday.

Futures recently “have probed beneath the $2.858 low from April, testing levels last seen in November. Further erosion toward the $2.21 low reached last October should not be ruled out,” Evans on Energy analyst Tim Evans said.

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