Syria's Push Against the Kurds Risks a Wider Escalation
Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
Syria is moving into a dangerous new phase. Damascus is pushing Kurdish forces out of Aleppo. Kurdish autonomy west of the Euphrates is no longer being tolerated, and the order to withdraw east is not a bargaining position. The Aleppo advance changes leverage. Once Kurdish forces lose their urban footholds, they lose political weight quickly. That is why the protests in Kurdish areas are growing out of desperation over the loss of negotiating leverage. At the same time, Washington is running a parallel play with strikes against ISIS targets following a deadly ambush on U.S personnel. This is a force protection move rather than an attempt to shape the internal balance in post-Assad Syria. From Damascus’ perspective, this means that while the U.S. will continue to target ISIS, it’s not planning to step into the fray as the Kurds (U.S. allies in Syria) are routed by the new regime. Damascus thinks it has a window to outsmart the Kurds right now, but the risk is that the Kurds will be looking to respond in kind before they completely lose leverage. That risks escalation, and Washington may not be able to keep its head in the sand on this one.
Abu Dhabi is pulling its forces out of a military base in Bosaso, a port city on Somalia’s northern coast along the Gulf of Aden. The base sits in Puntland, a semi-autonomous region that has often dealt directly with foreign partners. The UAE had used the facility to train local forces and…
Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
Syria is moving into a dangerous new phase. Damascus is pushing Kurdish forces out of Aleppo. Kurdish autonomy west of the Euphrates is no longer being tolerated, and the order to withdraw east is not a bargaining position. The Aleppo advance changes leverage. Once Kurdish forces lose their urban footholds, they lose political weight quickly. That is why the protests in Kurdish areas are growing out of desperation over the loss of negotiating leverage. At the same time, Washington is running a parallel play with strikes against ISIS targets following a deadly ambush on U.S personnel. This is a force protection move rather than an attempt to shape the internal balance in post-Assad Syria. From Damascus’ perspective, this means that while the U.S. will continue to target ISIS, it’s not planning to step into the fray as the Kurds (U.S. allies in Syria) are routed by the new regime. Damascus thinks it has a window to outsmart the Kurds right now, but the risk is that the Kurds will be looking to respond in kind before they completely lose leverage. That risks escalation, and Washington may not be able to keep its head in the sand on this one.
Abu Dhabi is pulling its forces out of a military base in Bosaso, a port city on Somalia’s northern coast along the Gulf of Aden. The base sits in Puntland, a semi-autonomous region that has often dealt directly with foreign partners. The UAE had used the facility to train local forces and support maritime security operations tied to shipping lanes off the Horn of Africa. Somalia’s federal government moved to cancel the agreement after weeks of public criticism and parliamentary pressure, arguing that the deal was signed without federal approval and violated national sovereignty. Once Mogadishu formally ended the agreement, the UAE had little legal or political space to resist and began dismantling the base. For the UAE, the withdrawal does not dismantle its regional footprint, but it does expose a vulnerability. The UAE’s Red Sea and Gulf of Aden posture has relied heavily on fast bilateral deals with local authorities in fragile states. That model works when central governments are weak. It works less well when those governments reassert control and are willing to challenge arrangements made around them. Bosaso is a case where access was easy to secure, but harder to hold once sovereignty became politically enforceable again.
Washington has announced what it calls phase two of the Gaza ceasefire, but it does not change daily life inside the Gaza Strip. The plan lays out who talks to whom and in what order, but it leaves the core reality untouched. Borders remain controlled from the outside. Aid still moves at someone else’s discretion. Military action can resume at any time. For Palestinians, that means no real shift in security, movement, or reconstruction. Each new phase is presented as progress abroad, but on the ground, it feels like the same arrangement with a new label. (While there might have been a bit of initial excitement for investors at the prospect of a Gaza rebuild, reality has taken over, and the theme dulled.)
Discovery & Development
Egypt announced four new oil and gas discoveries in the Western Desert, with combined output estimated at about 4,500 bpd of crude and 2.6 mmcf/d of gas. The finds were made by Khalda Petroleum, Tharwa Petroleum, and Borg El Arab Petroleum, with Khalda (a JV between EGPC and Apache Corporation) delivering the largest volumes. The discoveries come as Egypt pushes to lift domestic production and rein in imports after years of decline. Cairo plans to drill 101 wells in 2026 as part of a broader 480-well, $5.7 billion upstream push.
Equinor has been awarded 35 new production licenses in Norway’s APA round, spanning the North Sea, Norwegian Sea, and Barents Sea, with 17 operated by the company. The acreage strengthens Equinor’s exploration pipeline as it looks to offset expected production declines on the Norwegian continental shelf. Equinor booked 14 discoveries in 2025 totaling about 125 million boe and plans to drill 20–30 exploration wells per year, mostly near existing infrastructure. The company is targeting 6–8 new subsea developments annually through 2035 to keep NCS production near 2020 levels.
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited said it has made two onshore oil discoveries in Abu Dhabi’s Onshore Block 1 through its subsidiary Bharat PetroResources and JV Urja Bharat Pte. The finds were made at XN-76 in the Shilaif formation and XN-79-02S in the Habshan reservoir, marking the first Habshan oil discovery in the concession. BPCL has invested about $166 million in exploration since the block was awarded in 2019. The company said it will move into the appraisal phase to assess recoverable volumes and commercial viability.
ConocoPhillips confirmed a second offshore gas discovery in Australia’s Otway Basin after gas was recovered at the Charlemont-1 well in permit VIC/P79. The well intersected gas in the Waarre C sandstone. Results also point to possible hydrocarbons in the Waarre A sandstone, pending further analysis. The find strengthens the commercial case for more drilling near existing infrastructure as Australia’s east coast gas market tightens.
Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions
Anonymous sources have suggested that Devon Energy (DVN) and Coterra Energy (CTRA) could be looking to merge. Neither Devon nor Coterra has confirmed that they are exploring a deal, but sources say the talks are early and non-binding. The deal capitalizes on DVN’s Permian exposure and CTRA’s Marcellus gas assets, as well as its balance sheet. No timing has been divulged.
Rio Tinto said it is in early talks to buy Glencore in a potential all-share deal that could create the world’s largest miner with a combined market value near $207 billion. The talks mark a second attempt after Glencore approached Rio in late 2024. No clarity yet on assets, management, or valuation. The renewed push comes as major miners bulk up in copper. Under UK takeover rules, Rio has until February 5 to make a formal offer or walk away.
Canadian Natural Resources is in talks to buy a $1 billion-plus natural gas asset package from Tourmaline Oil Corp. Competition Bureau Canada filings show CNQ sought approval for a transaction with Tourmaline in late December, though no details have been disclosed. The assets are said to be in Alberta’s Peace River area of the Montney, a basin already seeing heavy M&A ahead of LNG export growth. Neither company has officially commented.