Superintelligence probably not happening, but AI will still reshape society, expert panel says
Experts may be skeptical about corporate AI hype to varying degrees, but they share the view that machine learning models will have a significant effect on society.
The Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) has published a report [PDF] titled “The Longitudinal Expert AI Panel” that attempts to distill the forecasts of knowledgeable folk – mainly men – in industry, academia, and policy about the capabilities, adoption, and impact of AI in the years ahead.
The research project, led by Ezra Karger, an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, suggests that few AI experts believe “superintelligence” as outlined by the likes of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei will arrive anytime soon.
But the 339 respondents participating in the project – AI and ML scientists, economists, technical staff at frontier AI companies, and policy experts from NGOs – believe that AI will spur significant social changes by 2040.
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