Study: Climate change enhances threat of infection-causing fungi to Europe
MaxENT model accurate described Aspergillus global distributions. A Habitat suitability for three Aspergillus species from the MaxENT model. Least suitable is 0 and most suitable is 1. B Correlation plots of frequency of each Aspergillus species found in the literature compared to the median suitability for that particular country in the MaxENT model. C Boxplots showing environmental differences between A. flavus, A. fumigatus and A. niger among three environmental variables used for SDM. Species marked with the same letter are not significantly different at P < 0.05 with regards to each environmental variable.
Image source: Van Rhijn N, Uzzell C, Shelton J, 2025, Preprint (Version 1) available at Research Square (CC BY 4.0)
The maps show that in a fossil fuel dependent economy, as outlined in the IPCC scenario of SSP585, the climate will change to become suitable for fungal pathogens to spread to new geographies, with a marked increase in Europe.
The spread of Aspergillus flavus could increase by about 16%, putting 1 million more people at risk of infection from this deadly fungal pathogen in Europe. This fungus is known to cause severe infections and is resistant to many antifungals available. This is an especially concerning trend as many fungal infections have high mortality rates, partly because of the lack of diagnostics, vaccines and treatment options as well as a lack of awareness of fungal infections. Additionally, as fungi are more similar to humans than other pathogens, developing anti-fungal treatments without toxic side effects is challenging.
The predictions also show that the spread of Aspergillus fumigatus could increase by 77.5% and potentially expose 9 million people in Europe. This is one of the most common fungal pathogens responsible for life-threatening infections in humans and affects the lungs.
Whilst the rise in global temperatures will increase the spread of fungi in Europe, temperatures in Africa could become so high that some fungi will not be able to survive on the continent. Fungi are an essential component to a functioning ecosystem, decomposing plant and animal matter to reintroduce nutrients into the soil. They also contribute to the carbon cycle which regulates the global climate and temperatures.