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Strong El Niño could make 2024 the first year we pass 1.5°C of warming

New Scientist · Madeleine Cuff · last updated

Early modelling suggests the world’s climate could shift to an El Niño pattern towards the end of 2023, which is likely to increase the global average temperature A global shift to an El Niño climate pattern later this year could pave the way for the world to breach 1.5 degrees C.

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What began as a theory in the 1890s — that industrial emissions of carbon dioxide could increase global temperatures — had progressed to a scientific fact a century later. Scientists across a range of disciplines are studying the impact of the still-growing concentration of carbon dioxide and other so-called “greenhouse gases” in the atmosphere as they call for industrial and governmental policies to slow, then halt, the warming of the planet. 

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