Someone made a ton of money betting on Maduro’s capture

<div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><span></span><ul><li></li><li></li><li></li></ul></div><div><p>A brand new account made some suspiciously timed bets on Polymarket.</p></div></div></div><div><div><div><p>A brand new account made some suspiciously timed bets on Polymarket.</p></div></div><div><div><div><div><div><img alt="Screenshot 2026-01-03 at 3.36.28 PM" src="https://platform.theverge.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/01/Screen… alt="Screenshot 2026-01-03 at 3.36.28 PM" src="https://platform.theverge.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/01/Screen… before the US military launched an attack on Venezuela and <a href="https://www.theverge.com/news/853728/the-u-s-attacked-venezuela-and-arr… President Nicolás Maduro</a>, an account on Polymarket made some <em>very</em> suspiciously timed investments. The <a href="https://www.theverge.com/podcast/845198/prediction-markets-mcp-vergecas… market </a>had been running bets on when or if Maduro would be removed from power, with prices for “out by January 31, 2026” <a href="https://x.com/joostienXD/status/2007366398587351500">as low as $0.07</a> late Friday evening. But within 24 hours of the military action, a newly created account invested tens of thousands of dollars, racking up several hundred thousand in profits.</p></div><div><p><a href="https://polymarket.com/@0x31a56e9E690c621eD21De08Cb559e9524Cdb8eD9-1766… account</a> was created less than a week ago and invested over $30,000 the day before the assault, turning a profit of over <a href="https://x.com/JoePompliano/status/2007455311351718118">$408,000</a&gt;. The activity was <a href="https://x.com/tysonbrody/status/2007345590968160516">flagged</a&gt; on <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/bluser12.bsky.social/post/3mbiwc7s2yk2k">social media</a>, with people speculating that the person placing the bet was acting on inside information and perhaps even worked at the Pentagon. Joe Pompliano, an investor and podcaster, quickly <a href="https://x.com/JoePompliano/status/2007455311351718118">pointed out</a> on X that “Insider trading is not only allowed on prediction markets; it’s encouraged.”</p></div><div><p>There have been past incidents of seemingly obvious <a href="https://huddleup.substack.com/p/prediction-markets-are-obviously?r=s7ix… trading</a> on prediction markets, but the companies often show little interest in curbing such behavior. This is partly because these companies believe the value they offer is not a level playing field for investors, but rather in <a href="https://x.com/JoePompliano/status/2007468655789981782">delivering news</a> and insights. When reached for comment, Kalshi, another prediction market, pointed us to a post on X stating that such insider trading was <a href="https://x.com/KalshiNewsroom/status/2007511146719494595?s=20">against its rules</a>. We reached out to Polymarket for comment, but have yet to receive a response.</p></div><div><p><strong><em>Update January 3rd:</em></strong> Added comment from Kalshi.</p></div><span><a href="https://www.theverge.com/news/853765/someone-made-a-ton-of-money-bettin…; Comments</span></a></span><div><span><strong>Follow topics and authors</strong> from this story to see more like this in your personalized homepage feed and to receive email updates.</span><ul><li><span><span><span></span><span>Terrence O'Brien</span></span></span></li><li><div><div><p>Posts from this topic will be added to your daily email digest and your homepage feed.</p><p><a href="https://www.theverge.com/news">See All News</a></p></div></div></li><li><div><div><p>Posts from this topic will be added to your daily email digest and your homepage feed.</p><p><a href="https://www.theverge.com/policy">See All Policy</a></p></div></div></li><li><div><div><p>Posts from this topic will be added to your daily email digest and your homepage feed.</p><p><a href="https://www.theverge.com/politics">See All Politics</a></p></div></div></li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>