Solar and Wind Power to Supply a Third of Global Power by 2030: RMI - Rigzone News

Solar and Wind Power to Supply a Third of Global Power by 2030: RMI | Rigzone

Solar and Wind Power to Supply a Third of Global Power by 2030: RMI

Solar and wind generation will continue increasing and supply over a third of all power by 2030, up from 12 percent currently, according to a report from RMI, a non-profit organization focused on the energy transition.

Based on the organization's forecast, solar and wind could generate 12,000 to 14,000 terawatt-hours by 2030, which is three to four times higher compared to 2022 levels. The projected levels would also exceed recent calls ahead of the COP28 climate summit to triple total renewable energy by 2030, RMI said.

The RMI also projects fossil fuel demand to be in “steep decline”, decreasing as much as 30 percent by 2030 from the 2022 peak, as renewable energy becomes more cost-effective.

“Exponential rates of deployment are driving down renewable prices at [an] unprecedented pace, rendering higher cost hydrocarbons uncompetitive in most markets”, RMI said. The cost of renewable electricity has dropped over the past 10 years, overcoming a key barrier to widespread deployment. Solar and battery costs have decreased by 80 percent between 2012 and 2022, while offshore wind costs are down 73 percent and onshore wind costs are 57 percent, RMI said, citing BNEF data.

RMI expects renewable energy, which is “already the cheapest form of electricity in history”, to roughly halve in price again by 2030, dropping to as low as $20 per megawatt-hour (MWh) from over $40 per MWh currently.

“Exponential growth of clean energy is an unstoppable force that will put more spending power in the pockets of consumers”, RMI Senior Principal Kingsmill Bond said. “The benefit of rapid renewable deployment is greater energy security and independence, plus long-term energy price deflation because this is a manufactured technology – the more you install the cheaper it gets.”

According to the report, the Global Stocktake of the United Nations, a two-year assessment of the progress of the Paris Agreement, is expected to highlight a major shortfall in meeting energy transition targets. The RMI said that “this backward-looking assessment misses the exponential growth of new energy technologies in the largest industries of the fossil fuel system”, as “electricity and road transport account for more than half of fossil fuel demand and have reached tipping points in deployment to pave the way for wide-spread adoption”.

The Paris Agreement is a global climate pledge adopted at the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, targeting to limit global warming to well below 2.0 degrees Celsius and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. It also aims to strengthen countries’ ability to deal with the impacts of climate change and support them in their efforts.

The RMI report also highlights the diversity of countries adopting renewable energy, apart from the leaders in Europe and China. Uruguay, Denmark, Lithuania, Namibia, Netherlands, Palestine, Jordan, and Chile have deployed solar and wind generation at “rapid speeds”, which demonstrates that “a rapid transition can be achieved across many different contexts”, RMI said, citing research from Systems Change Lab.

Denmark, Uruguay, and Lithuania have already achieved the target of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to boost wind and solar generation to 41 percent from 12 percent, while Namibia, the Netherlands, Palestine, Jordan, and Chile have grown solar and wind generation at “sufficient rates for five years”, the RMI said.

In an earlier report, the IEA said that volatility in fossil fuel markets brought about by the Russia-Ukraine war has “accelerated momentum” in clean energy technologies, with growth in annual clean energy investment for 2023 projected at 24 percent, surpassing the 15 percent increase in 2021.

To contact the author, email rteodoro.editor@outlook.com

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