Smoky summer skies could be ‘new normal’ in Upstate N.Y. due to climate change

Syracuse — The surge of wildfire smoke into Upstate New York’s skies is likely to continue in the coming years, or even worsen, experts say.

“Because of the climate change and more hot and drier days, wildfire activity is getting more intense and more frequent,” said Bhupal Shrestha, an atmospheric research scientist at the University at Albany. “That’s going to be a new normal.”

Air quality on Wednesday reached unhealthy levels across much of Upstate New York and is expected to be as bad as or worse today.

“This will likely be a prolonged event and we might see even worse air quality” today, warned Amanda Lefton, commissioner of the state Department of Environmental Conservation, at a news conference.

The DEC issued an air quality alert for all of New York state Thursday.

At a news conference Wednesday, Lefton said New Yorkers are likely to see worse air quality in the future.

“We’re seeing longer fire seasons. We’re seeing drier conditions across the country and in North America, and that can mean that we’re seeing increased wildfire smoke,” she said. “I think we can say with confidence that with climate change and with the increased risk of fires, this is something that we need to be very careful and mindful of in the future.”

Wildfires create fine particles of soot that are 30 times thinner than a human hair. Those particles can burrow into the lungs and bloodstream, where they can damage the body.

The particles are byproducts of combustion and can be generated by vehicles and factories as well as wildfire smoke.

Since air monitoring began at a site in East Syracuse in 1999, Central New York has seen 42 days when the air quality exceeded the threshold for “unhealthy for sensitive groups.” The worst four days were in June 2023, when wildfires raged in Quebec and winds from the north pushed the smoke into New York.

The highest reading recorded was on June 7, 2023, according to Environmental Protection Agency records. The daily average concentration of fine particulate matter pollution soared to more than 182 micrograms per cubic meter of air that day.

That’s more than three times the level considered unhealthy for everyone: 55.5 micrograms per cubic meter.

One recent study found that while the number of wildfires in Canada has declined, those that do occur are becoming larger and destroying more acres of forest.

“Accelerating climate change, largely from the burning of fossil fuels, makes wildfires bigger, hotter, and more destructive,” according to the Canadian Climate Institute.

Canada is warming twice as fast as the global average, the institute said. The last three fire seasons rank among the 10 worst in Canadian history, according to the institute.

Canada, the world’s second-largest country by land area, is particularly vulnerable to climate-change-induced forest fires. The country’s forests cover 1.4 million square miles, more than double the area of the entire state of Alaska.

Canada’s population of about 41 million is concentrated near the U.S. border. When fires start in remote areas, they are difficult to extinguish.

Climate change is not only bringing higher temperatures but also shifts in rainfall patterns, said Mark Wysocki, former New York state climatologist. He said a lack of rainfall can create a feedback loop that leads to drier and drier conditions—and bigger fires.

“As the soil dries out, it heats up faster,” Wysocki explained. “The heat then gets into the atmosphere and the atmosphere creates high pressure. You don’t get any rain, so the soil dries out more and more.”