Significant Movement in Sudan's Civil War
Politics, Geopolitics, & Conflict
Sudan’s army intensified its offensive on the city of Omdurman (across the Nile from Khartoum) in an attempt to rout the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary forces after having declared victory in the capital. This is the most significant movement in this conflict that we have seen in two years of bloody stalemate. The RSF still holds parts of Omdurman and has shifted its focus to western Sudan. Despite the victory in Khartoum claimed by the Sudanese army, the RSF is still entrenched in its positions outside of the capital, and the situation in Darfur is particularly intense.
U.S. airstrikes pounded Houthi-controlled sites in Yemen early on Friday, including the capital, Sanaa. As of the time of writing, the extent of the damage was not clear, but this launch appeared to be an escalation of an airstrike campaign that was launched almost two weeks ago.
Israel continued to reign destruction on Gaza this week, but the media was largely overtaken by an expose after The Atlantic editor-in-chief was accidentally added to a private Signal chat by Michael Waltz (Trump’s national security adviser) during which time Israel was sharing crucial intelligence on Houthi targets in Yemen to aid U.S. air strikes. While this is an open secret for the most part, the Houthis will seek to leverage this and rally friends around it.
Discovery & Development
DNO (OSL: DNO) just logged its tenth North Sea discovery since 2021,…
Politics, Geopolitics, & Conflict
Sudan’s army intensified its offensive on the city of Omdurman (across the Nile from Khartoum) in an attempt to rout the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary forces after having declared victory in the capital. This is the most significant movement in this conflict that we have seen in two years of bloody stalemate. The RSF still holds parts of Omdurman and has shifted its focus to western Sudan. Despite the victory in Khartoum claimed by the Sudanese army, the RSF is still entrenched in its positions outside of the capital, and the situation in Darfur is particularly intense.
U.S. airstrikes pounded Houthi-controlled sites in Yemen early on Friday, including the capital, Sanaa. As of the time of writing, the extent of the damage was not clear, but this launch appeared to be an escalation of an airstrike campaign that was launched almost two weeks ago.
Israel continued to reign destruction on Gaza this week, but the media was largely overtaken by an expose after The Atlantic editor-in-chief was accidentally added to a private Signal chat by Michael Waltz (Trump’s national security adviser) during which time Israel was sharing crucial intelligence on Houthi targets in Yemen to aid U.S. air strikes. While this is an open secret for the most part, the Houthis will seek to leverage this and rally friends around it.
Discovery & Development
DNO (OSL: DNO) just logged its tenth North Sea discovery since 2021, striking oil and gas in licence PL1182 S via the Kjøttkake well. Preliminary recoverable volumes range from 39–75 MMboe, averaging 55 MMboe, in Paleocene injectite sands. The find sits near existing infrastructure—27km from Troll C—which could fast-track development. DNO’s also beefing up its portfolio with the $1.6B acquisition of Sval Energi, adding cash flow to fund its Norwegian expansion.
Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) just hit another pre-salt milestone with a hydrocarbon find in the Norte de Brava block, offshore Campos Basin. Drilled at 575m depth, the 1-BRSA-1394-RJS well confirmed oil via logs, gas shows, and sampling—full reservoir details are pending. The discovery strengthens Petrobras’ $77.3B five-year E&P strategy, with 60% earmarked for pre-salt, and follows another recent strike in the Santos Basin. With full ownership of Norte de Brava and drilling now wrapped, Petrobras is reinforcing its dominance in Brazil’s deepwater game.
ReconAfrica is fast-tracking the spud of its Prospect I well in Namibia to Q2 2025, following solid progress on prep work including surveying, debushing, and upcoming demining. The target—one of the largest mapped structures in the Damara Fold Belt—shows four-way dip closure and is backed by encouraging data from the earlier Naingopo well. Prospect I is aiming for 365 MMbbl unrisked (32 MMbbl risked) or 1.7 Tcf unrisked (126 Bcf risked) prospective resources, per NSAI’s latest report. Drill pad and road construction are next as ReconAfrica moves closer to testing this high-impact play.
Sinopec has confirmed over 140 million tons of proven shale oil reserves in Shandong’s Jiyang zone—the first such certified shale oilfield find in China to top 100 million tons. This breakthrough boosts the estimated shale oil resource base in the area to 10.5 billion tons, with cumulative output now past 1 million tons. The find ties into the Shengli Oilfield, a legacy asset dating back to the 1960s. It marks a key milestone for China’s push to scale up shale production across its three national demo zones.
Deals, Mergers, & Acquisitions
Armenia is in advanced talks to import up to 1 bcm of gas from Turkmengaz via a swap arrangement through Iran, according to a senior advisor to PM Pashinyan. The proposed deal—still under price negotiations—would deliver gas to the Iran-Armenia border, with Iran already on board. Georgia has also agreed in principle to receive Turkmen gas via the same route, potentially opening access to Black Sea markets. Talks also include supplying Turkmen petroleum products to Armenia and possibly beyond.
BP (LSE: BP) has secured final Iraqi government approval to redevelop the massive Kirkuk oil fields, targeting 3 billion boe in initial output. The deal covers the Baba and Avanah domes plus three nearby fields—Bai Hassan, Jambur, and Khabbaz—and follows a series of agreements over the past year. BP’s compensation is tied to incremental production, pricing, and cost metrics, allowing it to book a portion of reserves. A new operator, combining Iraqi NOC and NGC staff with BP secondees, will oversee the project.
Repsol (REP.MC) and NEO Energy are merging their UK North Sea assets to form NEO NEXT, a JV expected to produce 130,000 boepd in 2025. Repsol will hold 45%, with NEO taking 55%, and the tie-up is projected to unlock over $1B in synergies. The move follows a wave of North Sea consolidation after the UK’s windfall tax and positions NEO NEXT for further M&A. The deal is set to close by September, solidifying Repsol’s full exit from its prior JV with Sinopec.