Shifting Realities: Climate Impact in Northwest Communities (August 2025)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Climate Impact in Northwest Communities presents an overview of climate-related disruptions to
community life, wellbeing and socio-economic stability of populations in the Northwest (NW). The
NWCIS looks at the impact of climate-related change across the six states of NW Nigeria: Kano,
Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Jigawa, and Zamfara. Exploring community perceptions of environmental
shocks, livelihood vulnerabilities, food security, water access, displacement, and local adaptation
efforts.

The assessment collected 508 community-based key informant interviews (KIIs) across 481
communities in 138 LGAs spanning six Northwest states of Nigeria, between the months of April-May
2025. A mix of quantitative and qualitative questions explored climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and
local adaptation strategies. Using a community-centered design, the approach ensured both urban
and rural representation while accounting for security constraints. Data reflects community-level
trends and perceptions as reported by purposively selected informants such as leaders, farmers, and
local market actors. Responses offer aggregated insights into livelihoods, access to services, and
environmental challenges, blending structured data with contextual narratives that help explain
observed patterns.

Findings from the assessment show that erratic rainfall patterns, delayed planting cycles, prolonged
dry spells, and recurrent flooding have significantly disrupted farming systems particularly in states
like Kebbi, Zamfara, and Katsina leading to reduced yields, loss of income, and increased reliance on
rain-fed, low-yield crops. Crops such as millet, maize, and rice were among the most affected,
highlighting urgent needs in the agriculture sector.

Water scarcity and infrastructure gaps remain persistent, with communities reporting increased
walking times, reliance on unprotected, unimproved water sources, and rising conflict over access in
states like Zamfara and Katsina. While states such as Jigawa show relatively stronger infrastructure
and shorter collection times, water-related tensions remain present even in these areas.

Communities reported a significant growth in food insecurity within the past three months January — March 2025 prior to data collection. Over 70% of households (HHs) reported disruptions to farming
income, with limited access to external support mechanisms or adaptive farming resources. Both
government and humanitarian assistance programs were reported as either non-existent or
insufficient in most communities, pointing to a critical support gap. Displacement and resettlement
also remain uneven across states, with concerns about housing, livelihoods, and protection affecting
return outcomes.

Although community-level adaptation efforts such as seasonal planning meetings are emerging
across the NW, they remain largely informal, fragmented and unsupported by institutional systems.
For example, in Sokoto, 75% communities reported that their primary preparedness activity is informal
seasonal discussions amongst farmers and local leaders, while Katsina (63%) and Zamfara (58%)
reported similar community-led gatherings. However, only 10-15% across the six states reported
access to any formal humanitarian or government supported warning systems and preparedness
initiatives. This gap illustrates the limited reach of structured disaster management and the reliance
on indigenous, community-based mechanisms. The varied yet widespread impact of climate risks,
combined with weak preparedness and the absence of formal support, leaves NW communities
exposed to dynamic vulnerabilities. This vulnerability is pronounced in states like Zamfara (53%) and
Sokoto (49%) levels of displacement, Katsina (75%), Jigawa (73%), Sokoto (73%), Kebbi (66%)
reporting changes in water access, and Zamfara (95%), Kebbi (74%) and Sokoto (69%) reporting food
price increase. The NWCIS assessment highlights that while community-based adaptive practices do
exist, their effectiveness is undermined by the reported lack of formal support, resources and
scalable and sustainable systems.