Shell’s energy security scenarios [Gas in Transition]
Shell’s energy security scenarios [Gas in Transition]
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Natural Gas News
Shell’s energy security scenarios [Gas in Transition]
Summary
Demand is not waning. On the contrary, fossil fuel consumption is soaring with no signs of slowing down in the foreseeable future. Oil demand increased last year and will increase again this year. In the meanwhile, renewable uptake is increasing fast but not fast-enough to meet increasing energy demand, especially in populous nations like China and India. [Gas in Transition, Volume 3, Issue 4] by: Charles Ellinas
Shell published its Energy Security Scenarios report on March 21, reflecting the security mindset that has taken hold following the global upheaval caused by the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, as national interests and energy security take precedence in the drive to address immediate energy concerns. In one scenario, Archipelagos, Shell looks at how things could evolve if current trends continue and, in another, Sky 2050, Shell considers how the world must move to achieve net zero by 2050. Based on these scenarios the report discusses how the world could switch from where it appears to be headed, towards a lower-carbon future. In a way, Archipelagos is a forecast based on where the world was in 2022 and where these known trends and policies could lead. Shell calls it an “explorative scenario,” which means “we do not assume the final outcome, rather we use plausible assumptions based on the data to determine what we believe will occur in the future.” In this, following the events of 2022, “global sentiment shifts away from managing emissions towards energy security.” In this: In the short-term nationalism pervades. The drive for energy security leads to significant use of low-carbon technologies. But competition between nations results in multiple low-carbon technology races. Rather than acting together to save the planet, groups of nations scramble to secure energy supplies and focus on building energy resilience to withstand future shocks. Global emissions stabilise in the 2020s and start falling from the mid-2030s, with net zero in sight, but still not ...
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Natural Gas & LNG News, World, Insights, Premium, Gas In Transition Articles, Vol 3, Issue 4