Scorching June temperatures will be increasingly common thanks to ... - inews

Scorching June temperatures will be increasingly common thanks to climate change

June temperatures exceeding 30°C will become increasingly common in the future as climate change warms the planet, according to a leading urban heat researcher.

The temperature reached 32.2°C in Surrey on Saturday, the earliest it has hit that level in the UK since 1996, when it happened three days earlier on 7 June, according to an analysis of data from the Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (Torro).

This doesn’t automatically mean we are in for unusually high temperatures for the summer as a whole, or that we will breach 40°C again, as we did for the first time last July. But it is a further sign that climate change is pushing up temperatures more generally, according to Professor Prashant Kumar, co-director of Surrey University’s Institute for Sustainability.

Last summer, Professor Kumar published a study on the “urban heat island” effect, which found that the centres of large cities such as London and Manchester are up to 10°C warmer than surrounding rural areas.

Last year, the temperature hit a record 40.3°C on July 8 in Coningsby, Lincolnshire.

Professor Kumar said he “wouldn’t be surprised” if temperatures exceeded that level again this year given the effects of climate change in pushing them up in general – but stressed this didn’t amount to a forecast.

“It’s very difficult to give a firm answer to the 40°C question. But seeing the dramatic changes in the weather and the heatwaves over the past decade in the UK I would not be surprised if it happens. It’s too early to say but the underlying conditions mean it’s always a possibility these days,” he said.

“Having said that, it is worth considering that July is the hottest month and we are still in June,” he added.

The unusually high temperatures for early June come after the UK recorded an annual average temperature of more than 10°C for the first time this year – following the hottest year on record, in 2022.”

However, temperature forecasts are notoriously difficult to predict more than a few days ahead, meaning it’s difficult to say with any certainty the length and magnitude of any heatwaves – and whether we could see 40°C temperatures again this year, experts said.

A Met Office spokesperson said there is no expectation of temperatures hitting this level in the next ten days and that it’s hard to be very precise about what will happen much beyond that.

“Our long-range outlook doesn’t go into specifics about temperatures as it isn’t possible to forecast that level of detail far out so the furthest we are able to be more specific about likely temperatures is 7 to 10 days ahead,” the spokesperson said.

“The longer range outlook, that we produce for planners as this level of information is useful for them, will give an indication of the chances of seeing warmer/cooler than average or wetter/drier than average conditions across the three months.”

“So while we do expect to see some hot spells across the summer as we would in most summers and more likely in our warming climate, at this stage beyond the next 10 days or so, we can’t forecast temperatures. There is currently no sign of 40 degrees in our forecast,” the spokesperson added.