Russia's New Oil Gambit
Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
Russia is signaling a desire to re-enter the global energy conversation on new terms, with Russian sovereign wealth chief Kirill Dmitriev floating the idea of U.S.–Russia–Saudi cooperation to stabilize oil markets. This proposal is less about near-term supply dynamics and more about geopolitics—specifically, Putin’s attempt to reassert relevance amid declining influence in Syria, stagnation in Ukraine, and growing dependence on non-Western partners. By adopting language that echoes Donald Trump’s “deal-making” ethos, the Kremlin appears to be laying rhetorical groundwork for engagement with the Trump administration on energy. Unlike Saudi Arabia’s technocratic and reality-based approach—reacting only to actual shifts in supply—Russia’s overtures are strategic, aimed at reshaping the energy alliance framework itself. It’s a move that blends oil diplomacy with power recalibration, positioning Moscow as a potential broker just as global leadership looks increasingly fragmented.
Following heightened tensions with Iran, Israel temporarily shut down its key offshore gas platforms, Leviathan and Karish, leaving only the Tamar field operational for domestic use. After nearly a week offline, Leviathan has resumed limited exports—only after meeting Israel’s internal demand—primarily supplying Jordan, with Egypt receiving only token volumes. The reduced flow has strained…
Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
Russia is signaling a desire to re-enter the global energy conversation on new terms, with Russian sovereign wealth chief Kirill Dmitriev floating the idea of U.S.–Russia–Saudi cooperation to stabilize oil markets. This proposal is less about near-term supply dynamics and more about geopolitics—specifically, Putin’s attempt to reassert relevance amid declining influence in Syria, stagnation in Ukraine, and growing dependence on non-Western partners. By adopting language that echoes Donald Trump’s “deal-making” ethos, the Kremlin appears to be laying rhetorical groundwork for engagement with the Trump administration on energy. Unlike Saudi Arabia’s technocratic and reality-based approach—reacting only to actual shifts in supply—Russia’s overtures are strategic, aimed at reshaping the energy alliance framework itself. It’s a move that blends oil diplomacy with power recalibration, positioning Moscow as a potential broker just as global leadership looks increasingly fragmented.
Following heightened tensions with Iran, Israel temporarily shut down its key offshore gas platforms, Leviathan and Karish, leaving only the Tamar field operational for domestic use. After nearly a week offline, Leviathan has resumed limited exports—only after meeting Israel’s internal demand—primarily supplying Jordan, with Egypt receiving only token volumes. The reduced flow has strained Egypt’s power sector, forcing a pivot to costly LNG and fuel oil, while Jordan faces financial pressure from diminished supply. The initial shutdown triggered a sharp rise in oil prices, with Brent spiking around 7%, as both Israel and Iran targeted energy infrastructure, including Iran’s South Pars project. Though markets have since calmed, risk remains high: further military escalation or a renewed shutdown could send another shock through regional energy networks. The Leviathan pause highlights how quickly tactical disruptions in the Eastern Mediterranean can translate into strategic leverage across the broader MENA energy corridor.
Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions
Petronas signs 20-year LNG supply deal with Commonwealth LNG
Petronas LNG Ltd has entered into a 20-year sales and purchase agreement (SPA) with U.S.-based Commonwealth LNG for the supply of 1 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of liquefied natural gas. The LNG will be sourced from Commonwealth’s planned 9.5 Mtpa facility in Cameron, Louisiana. Deliveries are expected to commence following a Final Investment Decision (FID), anticipated in Q3 2025, with first LNG targeted for 2029. The deal is conditional on regulatory approvals, including U.S. Department of Energy export authorizations. Petronas says the agreement supports its diversification strategy and strengthens supply security for its Asian customer base. The contract also includes options for future volume increases and equity participation.
Mercuria boosts European RCFs to US$3.5 billion to fuel expansion
Swiss-headquartered commodity trader Mercuria has significantly expanded its European revolving credit facilities (RCFs) to US$3.5 billion. The facilities include one-year and three-year tranches, as well as a one-year off-balance-sheet instrument, aimed at providing flexible liquidity. The upsize is aligned with Mercuria’s strategy to expand in LNG and energy transition metals, such as lithium and copper. Over 25 banks participated in the syndication, demonstrating robust lender appetite. The credit line is sustainability-linked, reflecting Mercuria’s growing ESG commitments. The increased facility provides the company with greater firepower amid volatile markets and global supply chain realignments.
Petronas and Eni to form joint venture for Southeast Asia oil and gas assets
Petronas and Italy’s Eni are finalizing plans for a 50:50 joint venture that will consolidate their upstream oil and gas assets in Malaysia and Indonesia. The JV will combine production from the Kutai Basin in Indonesia and offshore blocks in Malaysia, targeting a combined output of 500,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d). The portfolio reportedly includes 3 billion boe of proven reserves and up to 10 billion boe in upside potential. A definitive agreement is expected by the end of 2025, with JV setup likely to take 1–2 years. The structure will be self-financing and dividend-paying, minimizing reliance on external capital. Both firms view the JV as a platform for future regional and global upstream growth.
Mitsubishi in advanced talks to acquire Aethon Energy’s U.S. shale assets
Mitsubishi Corp is in late-stage negotiations to purchase shale gas and pipeline assets from U.S. private operator Aethon Energy for an estimated US$8 billion. The deal would give Mitsubishi control over a major portfolio in the Haynesville shale play in Louisiana and East Texas—one of the most prolific gas basins in the U.S. Assets include roughly 1,400 miles of pipelines and substantial processing infrastructure, enhancing Mitsubishi’s midstream reach. If completed, the transaction would represent Mitsubishi’s largest acquisition to date. The move supports the company’s strategy to expand LNG supply integration and increase exposure to Gulf Coast export markets. Mitsubishi aims to close the deal within the next few months, pending regulatory clearance and final terms.
Discovery & Development
Namcor’s headline $8 billion Angolan oil venture has collapsed after years of delays, internal dysfunction, and mounting friction with partners, culminating in Sonangol’s decision to terminate the deal and return Namcor’s N$524 million deposit. Though Namcor had committed around $450?million through its Sungara joint venture, the broader value of the upstream assets—particularly Block 23—represented a major strategic bet on regional expansion. The deal’s failure exposes institutional fragility: a key trigger was the unauthorized release of N$100 million by former MD Immanuel Mulunga, whose suspension revealed deep governance lapses and unclear decision-making authority. Even without financial loss, Namcor’s credibility has taken a hit, and its ability to compete for future cross-border upstream opportunities is now in question. For Angola, the episode reinforces Sonangol’s shift toward disciplined, reform-minded asset management—part of a wider regional recalibration favoring cleaner, de-risked partnerships.
West African governments, led by Nigeria, are offering the U.S. strategic access to oil, gas, and critical minerals like samarium—but face mounting barriers due to expanded U.S. entry bans. Nigerian Foreign Minister Yussuf Tuggar warned that the travel restrictions are disrupting energy and supply chain diplomacy, effectively acting as non-tariff trade barriers. The timing is especially acute as the U.S. seeks to diversify critical mineral sources away from China. Without high-level access to Washington, regional players risk missing key deal windows, delaying investment, and ceding ground to rival powers. The contradiction is sharp: U.S. strategic resource goals are being undermined by its own border policies.
ConocoPhillips, operating via its Skandinavia subsidiary, has successfully drilled a second appraisal well (6507/5?12?S) on the Slagugle discovery in the Norwegian Sea. The well encountered multiple oil columns across a 188?m interval—75?m of high-quality reservoir sandstone—and delivered a maximum flow rate of 650?Sm³/day, confirming a recoverable resource estimated between ~31 and 62 million barrels of oil equivalent. This follows a dry result from the first appraisal well in 2022. The outcome strengthens the case for field development, with partners now evaluating the data to determine next steps. The well used the Deepsea Yantai rig at 341m water depth, and drill plans are already underway for the rig’s next assignment.
Egypt has announced a new oil and gas discovery at the GPR-1X well in the Abu Sennan area of the Western Desert. Initial flow tests yielded up to 1,400 barrels per day of crude and one million cubic feet of gas. Estimated recoverable reserves are around two million barrels, with additional upside indicated in deeper formations. The find—Egypt’s second in the area in three months—reflects a renewed focus on mature-field exploration using AI-driven targeting.