Research Terms of Reference – Secondary Data Review Climate Change in Afghanistan – An Overview AFG2510 Afghanistan (September 2025 V1)

2. Rationale

2.1 Background

In 2022, Afghanistan was one of the 15 most vulnerable countries to climate change, according to the vulnerability index by the Notre Dame University. This suggests that the Afghan population is highly exposed to climate change, sensitive to these changes, has adapted poorly, and shows little readiness to invest in climate adaptation. However, impacts of climate change are complex due to Afghanistan’s diverse geography. Particularly, altitudes range from 260m to 7,500m above sea level, affecting temperatures, rainfall, and other climate dimensions. Besides anticipated adverse impacts of climate change, such as increasing temperatures, greater drought frequency, and glacier retreat, some positive impacts are expected. These include longer growing seasons and medium-term increases in river flows due to increased meltwater.

While research on climate change in Afghanistan exists, much of it is within the academic literature and hence is not easily accessible to humanitarian and basic needs actors. Some efforts have been undertaking by humanitarian organisations to shed light on the topic, notably. However, the majority of this reporting focuses on drought and adaptation, rather than on the impacts of climate change specifically. This is an essential topic for the response due to its implications for disaster risk, livelihoods, food security, health and others, as well as affecting the sustainability of humanitarian programmes. The aim of this research is hence to provide a summary of existing academic and humanitarian research on climate change in Afghanistan and its impacts on the population, providing a mapping of resources.

This project links to previous research conducted by REACH on drought8 while leveraging existing REACH data, hence improving utilisation of previous research.