RELEASE: Mid-year check on climate plans: not much to analyse

Only 11 of the countries the CAT assesses have submitted a 2035 climate target, despite an early deadline this year, with just one — the UK — putting forward a domestic 2035 target that would be 1.5C compatible if it increased international finance.

“A failure to substantially increase 2030 targets would likely lead to a multi-decadal, high overshoot of the 1.5˚C limit, even if followed by strong 2035 targets, which themselves must be 1.5 compatible,” said Bill Hare CEO of Climate Analytics.

“And let’s be clear: overshooting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit would be a very serious political failure. Numerous scientific assessments have shown that there is sufficient technological and economic capacity to reduce emissions fast enough, but the major obstacle is political will. We hope that the Brazilian COP30 presidency has a plan to push for a massive increase in 1.5°C aligned NDC ambition but a present there’s no such plan in sight.”

CAT countries account for around 85% of global emissions. Including the 10 additional submissions made by non-CAT countries, 22 countries had submitted new targets by 19 June 2025, together representing 19% of 2023 global emissions.The remaining CAT countries yet to submit their NDCs account for approximately 68% of global emissions.

“We had planned to add up the impact of the new NDCs, but there is barely anything to quantify and virtually no change since Baku in 2024. Many of the submissions are vague, the NDCs of the large countries that would make a difference like the EU, China and India are still missing, or they are under pressure, as with the US,” said Ana Missirliu of NewClimate Institute.