Regional paths, global stakes: looking ahead to COP30 in a fragmented world

COP30 in Belém arrives at a moment of profound uncertainty. For decades, the climate process has rested on the promise of multilateralism: that countries, however different, could align around ambition, shared rules, and finance.

That promise now feels under strain. With the United States stepping away for a second time, the question is whether others – China, the European Union, Brazil, and key G20 economies – will carry the system forward. What emerges may well be a new form of regionalism: progress driven less by universal frameworks and more by alliances of countries, sectoral clubs, and regional agreements moving at uneven speeds.

Within this shifting landscape, I will watch three issues with particular interest.

National climate plans

The first is the next generation of national climate plans, or NDCs, due this year. COP30 is the critical moment when countries are expected to table these commitments, which will define trajectories out to 2035. The significance of these commitments cannot be overstated: they will shape the pace of the transition, influence the demand for technologies and capital, and set the operating conditions for firms across sectors. Many governments missed the informal February deadline to submit their plans, which heightens the stakes in Belém.

Climate finance

The second is climate finance. At COP29 in Baku, governments agreed on a new collective goal that points to around $300 billion per year by 2035. The ambition is clear; the delivery is not. Who pays, how much comes from public budgets versus private capital, and what role multilateral banks will play, all remain undecided. The credibility of Belém will rest in part on whether governments can outline pathways that convert a headline figure into predictable flows for mitigation, adaptation, and loss-and-damage support. For investors and firms, these flows will provide potentially powerful signals about which regions and sectors will attract capital and which risks will be contained.

Energy transition

The third is the energy transition and the future of carbon markets. COP28 in Dubai created momentum by calling for a transition away from fossil fuels. In Belém, I expect to see whether governments translate that ambition into concrete NDC commitments – embedding fossil fuel phasedowns, scaling renewables, doubling efficiency, and accelerating methane abatement. Alongside this, rules for carbon markets are meant to be moving from negotiation to implementation. The integrity of these mechanisms – whether they rest on rigorous baselines, effective safeguards, and full transparency – will determine if markets become tools for genuine ambition or simply mechanisms of delay.

For business and finance, these issues are not peripheral. Policy clarity in NDCs reduces transition risk and shapes investment horizons. Credible finance pledges create investable projects, influence the cost of capital, and guide decisions about where to deploy resources. The strength of carbon market rules affects how firms design offset strategies, how investors value low-carbon assets, and how supply chains manage emissions. The signals emerging from Belém will flow directly into boardroom strategies and financial models.