Recurring dry spells hitting New England raise alarms about future flash droughts

That seasonal balance could be changing. As temperatures rise and weather patterns grow more erratic, scientists say one of the most significant shifts for New England may be the rise of flash droughts, generally described as the rapid onset of intense dry spells that develop within about a month and last only a few months. New England has seen such flash droughts last fall, and the same this year.

Because the Northeast is typically a wet region, drought isn’t something people expect, and their understanding of it isn’t as easy as in drier parts of the country, according to Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux, a professor of climatology at the University of Vermont.

That understanding is now being tested. As of Nov. 7, nearly 63 percent of New England is in severe to extreme drought, with northern areas hit hardest. Vermont and New Hampshire are both experiencing their most widespread extreme droughts since the U.S. Drought Monitor began in 2000, while 42 percent of Maine is in extreme drought — the state’s largest such event since 2000. Massachusetts has been less impacted, with about 32 percent of the state in moderate drought.

Dupigny-Giroux said the current conditions may have been worsened by a flash drought in 2024 — part of a string of dry spells the region has faced in recent years.

Since 2000, four major droughts have hit New England — in 2000, 2016, 2020, and 2022 — with several marked by rapid-onset “flash” conditions that developed between late spring and late fall.

While northern states like Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont depend mostly on groundwater, Southern New England leans on surface water, leaving some communities more exposed when flash droughts hit. As a result, localized impacts of flash droughts are more severe. This time around, dairy farmers have struggled to provide for their cattle; restaurants have had to temporarily shutter; and water use limitations have been put in place.

Now, researchers warn they may only become more common.

A 2022 American Meteorological Society study of the Northeast’s future hydrology found that flash droughts could become far more common, with their frequency more than doubling between 2050 and 2100 under a high–emissions scenario. A 2019 analysis of historical trends offered early evidence of that shift, finding that while the region has grown wetter overall, drought patterns have become more variable, especially in Northern New England, where short-term dry spells had become more frequent and intense.

“Scientists have a pretty good idea what New England’s hydrological future looks like, especially in comparison to other regions,” said Paul Ullrich, professor of regional and global climate modeling at the University of California-Davis and an author of the 2022 study. “We expect the region to get much wetter, but that doesn’t mean these flash droughts won’t become more frequent.”

As temperatures rise, so too does the atmosphere’s capacity to hold water vapor, speeding up evaporation from soil, rivers, and lakes. “The atmosphere essentially becomes thirstier,” Ullrich said. Longer growing seasons compound the problem, as plants draw water from the ground earlier and for longer, drying up groundwater.

At the same time, precipitation is becoming more erratic, with months of heavy rain followed by sudden dry spells, according to Ullrich. The uneven rhythm of rain and dryness leaves soils quick to dry out, even after brief breaks between storms.

A 2025 Harvard Forest study even found that intense precipitation events actually create the conditions for droughts as water drains too fast for the region’s rocky soil to retain the moisture, meaning that the “feast or famine storms” of the region’s future may not give plants enough water to feast on.

Still, climate projections and the flurry of recent droughts may not be enough to call it a pattern, according to Dupigny-Giroux. Expanding the hydrological record before the 2000s shows that drought has long been part of New England’s climate—some far more intense than today’s.The difference, she said, is that those were slower to develop.

Ullrich and Dupigny-Giroux both agree that long-term droughts have and will continue to decrease in frequency. Flash droughts, however, are another story—faster, less predictable, and increasingly poised to test how well New England can adapt to a new rhythm of wet and dry.

“They are hard to prepare for because they can develop into a severe drought within a month,” said Zeyu Xue, a drought expert and author of a retrospective analysis of a 1960s Northeast drought. The biggest impacts, according to Xue, will be on agricultural production and grassland ecosystems.

For municipalities, experts say adapting to faster-moving droughts will require rethinking how water is managed and monitored. Towns that once relied on monthly rainfall totals or groundwater readings may need real-time data systems, stricter conservation policies, and updated infrastructure to capture and store water when it’s available.

Monitoring may have to be the first change, according to Xue. “Traditional drought monitoring systems rely on weekly or monthly averages and were designed to capture long-term droughts that develop over months,” he said. “We need to improve these systems to detect these flash droughts as they develop rapidly.”

This story is published in partnership with Inside Climate News, a nonprofit, independent news organization that covers climate, energy, and the environment.