Sep 26, 2026

Record Summer Heat Fails to Lift U.S. Natural Gas Prices

Natural gas at Henry Hub sold for an average of $2.93 per million British thermal units between June and August, marking a 6% drop from the corresponding period one year earlier, even as the Lower 48 experienced its warmest July ever documented.

According to NOAA, temperatures across the Lower 48 averaged 77 degrees Fahrenheit in July, which drove up electricity consumption as cooling systems worked harder.

The Energy Information Administration estimated that solar output climbed by roughly 19.4 billion kilowatt-hours during the June-to-August window relative to the same months in 2025. Wind power contributed an extra 9.3 billion kilowatt-hours. Generation from natural gas rose by 7.5 billion kilowatt-hours. Over the summer, the gain from wind and solar combined was close to four times larger than the gain from gas-fired generation.

Gas availability also exceeded the prior year’s levels. From June through August, U.S. dry natural gas output was 2.7 billion cubic feet per day higher on average, representing a 2% gain, with the Permian ranking among the leading contributors to that growth. The EIA projects dry gas production will reach a record average of 111.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2026.

When the April injection season began, storage held 1.906 trillion cubic feet of working gas, which was 4% higher than the prior five-year average. Each month through August saw injections surpass their corresponding five-year averages, with May being the sole exception.

Routine maintenance work at U.S. LNG export facilities curbed the growth in demand from the export segment over the summer, freeing up additional gas for electricity production and storage.

The EIA anticipates that working gas inventories in the Lower 48 will climb to 3.985 trillion cubic feet by the close of October, roughly 5% above the five-year average.

July’s unprecedented heat boosted gas-fired electricity generation without constricting the market sufficiently to raise Henry Hub prices beyond the previous summer’s average. Record output, robust storage injections and an additional 29 billion kilowatt-hours of wind and solar generation kept the gas market amply supplied throughout the hottest cooling months.