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Prediction market bets on Iran strikes stoke insider trading, ethics scrutiny

Reuters · Tom Westbrook · last updated

SINGAPORE/NEW YORK, March 2 (Reuters) — Bets that were placed on the ouster of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei drew scrutiny on Monday of prediction ​markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, sparking calls from Democratic U.S. lawmakers to outlaw wagers on military actions that could enrich officials with inside ‌knowledge.

Khamenei was killed in Israeli air strikes on Iran’s capital Tehran over the weekend. U.S. lawmakers and analysts flagged bets that had been placed on his ouster both in January and right before the attacks, stoking long-simmering concerns over the legality and ethics of such trades, and the potential for insider trading.

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